Detroit's Schedule Significantly Easier Heading Down the Stretch

We always admire Jim Leyland in his ability to lineup our pitching rotation to our advantage. For instance, he recently tweaked our staff schedule in order that Verlander might pitch twice against the White Sox down the stretch. In the midst of his recent struggle, this was especially important as Verlander has been dominate against the White Sox of late. (11-1 in his last 13 starts.)

This is why last night's postponement is an advantage for the White Sox. Not only will the Tigers have to swing through Chicago for an inconvenient one day road trip after time in Cleveland, but they will not have to face Verlander in what is the most important game left on the schedule for both teams.

The upside? The Tigers schedule is easier than that of the White Sox after the game next Monday. The Tigers will have nine games at home and only six on the road, with only three against a team over .500. (The sliding Oakland A's.) The White Sox on the other hand, have 6 games at home and 9 on the road, playing 7 of the fifteen games against team over .500. (Including the surging Angels and playoff hungry Rays.)

All in all it was a successful road trip to Chicago and all things look to be in place for another playoff run in 2012.

Just 78% Done... Where Do We Stand?

The Tiger's Sunday victory marked the 127th game completed for the Tigers this season. The simple math shows that this marks just over 75% of the season completed (78% to be exact). On the flip side, this means there is almost 25% of the season left (as mentioned in our post this past weekend). All the Detroit faithful are wanting the Tigers to make the playoffs...just like our 2011 team did. We have heard a lot of talk about the Tigers being better last year...a more complete team...stronger work-ethic....and more leadership. Is that true? Is this team, the 2012 Tigers, worse than last year's ALCS contending Tigers? Let's look at the splits.

After 127 games played - 

RECORD

2011: 69-58

2012: 69-58

Exactly the same thus far...looks like September will be telling. The 2011 team went 20-6 in the month of September. The 2012 team will probably need to play this strong down the stretch as well.

BATTING

2011:

Click to Enlarge

2012:

Click to Enlarge

It is interesting how similar the production has been by these two squads. The 2012 team has scored 2 more runs on about 20 less AB. This year and last year saw 126 HR through 127 games. The team BA was microscopically higher in 2011, but the OBP and SLG are higher this season - they should be with the addition of Mr. Fielder. What we found striking was the number of runners left on base through 127 games...919 in 2011 and 892 in 2012. The way this season has felt it seems like it would be opposite. The 2012 team is statistically better through 78% of the season. 

PITCHING

2011: 

Click to Enlarge

2012:

Click to Enlarge

The 2012 staff has allowed almost 30 fewer ER accounting for an ERA of 3.90 versus 4.18 for 2011. This year's team has struck out the entire world it seems like - between Scherzer and JV. 1,049 SO versus 860 (2012 vs. 2011).  This year's team has induced 8 more GIDP - hopefully Rick Porcello continues to improve at this. 

SUMMARY

This year's and last year's team are very similar in almost every respect. It appears that the reason for the agonizing chase of 1st place in the AL Central is simply that the White Sox are just continuing to win. It has been said here before, that we do not think the Sox can tear through September like they have been. If the Tiger's have a September like last year they should be fine. It will come down to the head-to-head games between the two teams...hopefully, this AL Central power struggle will propel the 2nd place team into one of the two AL Wild Card slots!

GO TIGS!

Will the Tigers Make the Playoffs?

All year we have been encouraging people not to worry, as the season is one that is long. The thought is the same for today. Here are a couple of items to remember as we come down the stretch. 

1.) The regular season lasts into October this year. In fact, the Tigers have a final three game series in Kansas City that will be fully played in October. With this in mind, there are still 36 games left in this season. That is still almost a quarter of the season. 22.22%.

2.) The scoreboard watching has certainly picked up. Every night we find ourselves checking to see if the White Sox won. Their season continues to come together with unexpected rigor. Bottom line... They keep winning, but we don't think that their pace will continue. All of their pieces have fallen into place this year and this will not sustain through the final quarter of the season. 

3.) As stated in an earlier post, with the parallel schedules that the White Sox and Tigers have, whether or not the Tigers make the playoffs will depend on those seven games. If either team wins 5 of 7, then that team will win the Central. The other team will have to scramble to get one of those wildcard bids.

Watching Baseball with the Blind

I was given a gift on Wednesday. I went to a baseball game with a blind friend named Charles. I will never watch a game the same way again.

For the first time, I prioritized the sound of baseball while taking in the game with Charles. Many often say that baseball is better on the radio than on the television. I caught a glimpse of why this is true on Wednesday.

My friend couldn't see the game, yet was enthralled by the experience at Chavez Ravine, even without sight.

The last time that he went to a game was in 1993, and he could see at that time. He went blind in 1997. This time, he could only hear, and he heard a lot.

He talked about hearing all of the noises of the game that went beyond the crack of the bat. He heard the people. He heard the conversations that were happening around him. We were reminded that baseball, while mostly quiet, was a talking persons game.

He would hear the prompts for the crowd to get clapping at the same time during important moments of the game. He would join in the percussion. Off a beat. While blindness has made his hearing better, it was clear that it did not help his rhythm.

He also heard all of the noise pollution. He heard the mess of songs that played as each hitter stepped to the plate. The soundbites were a bit much, he told me. He also heard the advertisements that rang between each inning on the big screen. The latest movie, the next product to purchase, etc... He was bothered by this recent development at Dodger's Stadium, and rightly so. "It didn't used to be this way." He said. I lamented.

He also heard the communal yell of the crowd. While not knowing what was exactly going on, he joined in the screams. The energy of the people around him compelled him to join. It was incredible to watch. He never actually asked what happened, but someone always told him and this gets to the best part.

The most meaningful observation of him experiencing the game came from the people that surrounded him in seats 11 and 13. No matter where they were in other conversations, they would always lean over to describe the fortune or the folly of the players.

"Ground ball, second base, out at first. Two outs, man on third." One would say.

I got to yell at him in the first inning. "Home run, Matt Kemp, left center!" The crowd was going crazy as I stretched the limits of my vocal cords into his right ear. Charles winced a bit and then smiled as he clapped his hands for the 400 foot blast from the Dodger all-star. He closed his eye lids, hiding the bright blue irises that jumped around in his eye ducts like an over caffeinated hand.

I asked him as we drove home why he closed his eyes during the game. He told me that he could still see the game clearly when his eyes were closed. He reminded me that he dreamed at night in perfect 20/20 vision, and that closing his eyes at the game prompted that sort of vision. "Closing my eyes allowed me to envision what that Matt Kemp home run actually looked like." He told me as he smiled again.

It seems that watching the game is still important. Even to Charles. 

Down the Stretch They Come: This is Going to be Close

The bottom line for the Tigers over the past two months (Since June 1) is that they have been playing exceptionally better at home than on the road. Not unusual in baseball.

On the Road

14-14

At Home

20-9

With this in mind, we have good news for you as we forecast into the final two months of the season.

The Tigers have 29 remaining home games and 25 remaining away games.

At this pace, the Tigers should win another 33 games, finishing the season with 91 wins. We forecasted 86 wins to be enough to win the AL Central. So this should be enough... Right?

The problem of it all is that the White Sox basically have the same ratio of home vs. away games as the Tigers. 29 and 26. Pair this with the reality that the White Sox continue to play out of their minds, the race could be close. Very close. (If there was a comeback team of the year, it would have to go to the White Sox.)

To add to the equality of both team's schedules, they will both be playing an equal buffet of bottom dwellers in the AL Central heading into October.

The Tigers play the Royals and the Indians 25 times, while the White Sox play them 24 times.

With all of these factors in mind, our estimation is that the AL Central will come down to the 7 times that the White Sox and Tigers play each other in August and September. The team that wins that 7 game series will most likely be playing in October, while the other will be watching from home.

Justin Verlander's Straight Dominance

A pitcher who consistently pitches more than 6 innings every start is quite rare...It does not seem like such a huge issue, but that kind of endurance as a starting pitcher does not happen. Verlander just made his 62nd consecutive start of 6+ inning pitched. Quite frankly, he usually goes 7+. This streak is only beaten by Steve Carlton (69) and Bob Gibson (78).  The fact is, is that he is also doing this while consistently allowing less than a baserunner per inning pitched during this streak. If he continues that trend of a WHIP < 1.0 for this season as well as 2011, he will be just the 7th pitcher since the 1920s to do this. 

What makes him so dominate. Well, besides his elite talent and mastery of his multiple pitches, Justin Verlander prepares more than any other to silence the biggest threats in the opposing team's lineup. Looking through Verlander's splits for different batting order positions you will see the trend. The 3-4-5 positions in the lineup are notorious for being stacked with a team's best slugger's. It goes without saying that if you can silence these bats as a pitcher - you will have a good chance of getting your team in position to win. Well, let's see how Verlander competes against these guys. 

Career:

Click to Enlarge

MVP, CY Young 2011:

Click to Enlarge

2012: 

Click to Enlarge

It is clear to see from the stats that throughout Verlander's career - he is continuing to become more dominant against the 3-4-5 hitter. He is even better in 2012 than during his amazing run of 2011. Currently this year the BA against JV from the 3-4-5 spot is .220-.161-.250 with OPS's of .676-.497-.718. He is literally taking the opposing team's heart of their lineup. While watching JV pitch you are watching a master in the making. 

Go JV!

Detroit Tigers First Half Report Card

Catcher: B

If we were only giving a grade to Alex Avila, the grade would be lower. However, Gerald Laird has turned a C+ into a B. An all-star last year, Avila has been disappointing. Especially at the dish, hitting only .242 with 5 HR and 23 RBI. Laird, in only 98 AB is hitting .306 with 2 HR and 6 RBI. 

Third Base: A

We all knew that Miguel could hit. Who wants to argue that there is a better hitter in the game? With another off year, the crown has been passed from Pujols to Cabrera. That which gives Miguel an ! here is not his bat but his glove. He has been solid all year long, exceeding the defenisve expectations of everybody.

Shortstop: C

Peralta has been a disappointment, but we might argue that he is only a disappointment in light of the unusual year that he had last year. When compared to the rest of his career, Peralta is actually on par with how he typically performs. Let's lower the bar on our shortstop and be thankful for his exceptional year in 2011 and that we no longer have to put up with Adam Everett's bat.

Second Base: F

With the failed Raburn experiment and Santiago destined to remain a utility player we need help! Jose Altuve is our guy and we have calls in to Dave D. to make it happen. We'll see if a trade can help the consistent black in our lineup. (Maybe sweet Lou will consider coming out of retirement!)

First Base: A-

Let's give Prince some credit for his rather flawless transition to the American League. This is no small deal. See the transition of Pujols to remember just how hard it is to get accustomed to a whole new set of pitchers. While he is still poor defensively, his bat speaks for itself and his presence is as large as his new contract. 

Left Field: B-

Who would have thought that we would say that we would miss Andy Dirks. He over performed in the first quarter, .328 BA 4 HR 16 RBI, filling the hole of our consistent carousel of left fielders since G Money held down the spot in 2006. Can anyone say Justin Upton?

Center Field: A

Receiving the only other A in our lineup is Miguel Cabrera. This is how good Austin Jackson has been. Exceeding all expectations at the plate in becoming a true lead-off man, while maintaining perfection in center field, Austin may get his name in the MVP conversation is he continues his good work. 

Right Field: D+

We were all hoping that this was going to be the year for Brennan Boesch to solidify himself as our everyday right fielder and perennial all-star. This hasn't been the case. For the Tigers to make a run to the World Series, this will need to become the case. The potential in Boesch's bat far exceeds that of Don Kelly or Raburn. 

Starting Pitching: C+

The good news is that we have taken a step in a better direction than where we started. The bad news is that we started with some really bad steps. Outside of Verlander, we have had little consistency, but hope that that last month of pitching is better representitive of the direction we are moving into the dog days, rather than the first month. 

Relief Pitching: B

This grade would be an A-, except for the performance of Jose Valverde. Let's remember how good he was last year and how high the bar is set. However, let's also remember that if Valverde had not blown three saves that we would be a half game out with a record of 47 and 39.

The Surprising First Half MVP In Detroit

The question of who the first half MVP is for the Detroit Tigers is not an easy one. The obvious characters in the plot lie upon the likes of our three All Stars.

Justin Verlander: His streak of pitching at least 6 innings in games that he has started is stunning. (If he stays on pace, he will pass Bob Gibson late this fall or early spring of next year at 78 straight.)

Prince Fielder: His hot bat led us to only 3.5 games out at the break and his transition to American League pitching has been flawless. (Not something to take for granted.)

Miguel Cabrera: Does anyone want to argue for a better hitter in the universe? (Is this the year that he gets his MVP?)

All of these players are certainly worthy of the title of MVP within the organization for the first half of the season. However, we thought that we would give the honors to a unexpected player for his unlikely contribution to this year's squad.

Austin Jackson: Even with that stint on the DL, Austin's numbers are placing him in the conversation for MVP not just of the Tigers, but for the whole American League.

Look at the comparison of numbers from last year to this year! Who would have imagined such progress in our young and future all-star?

Are you kidding me? Who would have even thought  that he would cut down on his strikeouts and add to his OPS in such copious fashion? And essentially double his HR and RBI??? This guy has gone out of his mind, especially when you consider that he is only at 253 AB. 

Some are mining for comparisons to Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates. We agree. Give Austin two more years and he could be a threat to comparisons to the Bucs up and coming centerfielder. 

We'll see if he holds for the second half, and if he does, look for him to have a serious impact in October. 

Second Base In Detroit

Our Twitter account has been filling up with all sorts of different conversations happening within the world of Detroit Tiger baseball. Within the diversity of thoughts and ideas, there seems to be one thing that we can all agree upon, and that is that we need an everyday second baseman. 

The Ryan Raburn project fell through this year and Ramon Santiago seems destined to stay as an utility player. All this in mind, here is an idea that we hope Dave D. is working through.

Trade any number of players for Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve. 

His numbers are solid, and his upside is even better as he is only 22 years old.

To top it off... He is from the same city in Venezuela as Miguel Cabrera. The city is called Maracay.

We may lose Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young, Nick Castellanos, Jacob Turner, or any combination of these players, plus more. However, we feel that this trade may be worth it as 2B has been an black hole of outs and errors every since templeton (Polanco) left in 2010.

Storyline Opens Twitter Account

Hold on to your pants Jim Leyland, The Detroit Tigers Storyline has officially opened a twitter account. We hope that you will follow us as we speak of the ridiculous and the mundane throughout the highs and lows of Tiger baseball. Some highlights of the Twitter account will include, but not be limited to the following.

1.) Live tweeting of Tiger's games.

2.) Insider perspectives on alalysis of numbers.

3.) Gerald Laird fat jokes.

4.) Links to new and original content that appears on this website.

Click on the toolbar to the right to follow us!