Down the Stretch They Come: This is Going to be Close

The bottom line for the Tigers over the past two months (Since June 1) is that they have been playing exceptionally better at home than on the road. Not unusual in baseball.

On the Road

14-14

At Home

20-9

With this in mind, we have good news for you as we forecast into the final two months of the season.

The Tigers have 29 remaining home games and 25 remaining away games.

At this pace, the Tigers should win another 33 games, finishing the season with 91 wins. We forecasted 86 wins to be enough to win the AL Central. So this should be enough... Right?

The problem of it all is that the White Sox basically have the same ratio of home vs. away games as the Tigers. 29 and 26. Pair this with the reality that the White Sox continue to play out of their minds, the race could be close. Very close. (If there was a comeback team of the year, it would have to go to the White Sox.)

To add to the equality of both team's schedules, they will both be playing an equal buffet of bottom dwellers in the AL Central heading into October.

The Tigers play the Royals and the Indians 25 times, while the White Sox play them 24 times.

With all of these factors in mind, our estimation is that the AL Central will come down to the 7 times that the White Sox and Tigers play each other in August and September. The team that wins that 7 game series will most likely be playing in October, while the other will be watching from home.