Down the Stretch They Come: This is Going to be Close

The bottom line for the Tigers over the past two months (Since June 1) is that they have been playing exceptionally better at home than on the road. Not unusual in baseball.

On the Road

14-14

At Home

20-9

With this in mind, we have good news for you as we forecast into the final two months of the season.

The Tigers have 29 remaining home games and 25 remaining away games.

At this pace, the Tigers should win another 33 games, finishing the season with 91 wins. We forecasted 86 wins to be enough to win the AL Central. So this should be enough... Right?

The problem of it all is that the White Sox basically have the same ratio of home vs. away games as the Tigers. 29 and 26. Pair this with the reality that the White Sox continue to play out of their minds, the race could be close. Very close. (If there was a comeback team of the year, it would have to go to the White Sox.)

To add to the equality of both team's schedules, they will both be playing an equal buffet of bottom dwellers in the AL Central heading into October.

The Tigers play the Royals and the Indians 25 times, while the White Sox play them 24 times.

With all of these factors in mind, our estimation is that the AL Central will come down to the 7 times that the White Sox and Tigers play each other in August and September. The team that wins that 7 game series will most likely be playing in October, while the other will be watching from home.

Why the Tigers Will Win Over 100 Games and Andy Oliver

Hank Greenberg in 1934

It isn't often that the Detroit Tigers win over 100 games in a season. It has only happened 5 times in their history. (1984, 1968, 1961, 1934, 1915) There is one outstanding reason why this may happen this year. It has less to do with the Detroit Tigers, and more to do with the rest of the AL Central. While the Tigers have put together an exceptional squad for 2012, let's remember that the rest of the AL Central is as exceptionally bad as the Tigers are good. We have already predicted that the chances are slim that any team in the central will break .500. With this in mind and 43 percent of the Tigers games coming against teams in the central (70 of the Tigers 162 games), the chances for winning over 100 games are high. If the Tigers play .685 baseball against the central, which is well within reach, the Tigers would only have to play .565 baseball against the rest of their schedule to make it to 100 wins.

48 wins and 22 losses Against the Central

52 wins and 40 losses Against the Rest of the American League

This blog will take all bets that the Tigers will win less that 100 games. Just email us with how much!

On another note... Andy Oliver today... Nasty.

96 mph cheddar

Andy Oliver topped out at 96 mph today and commanded his fastball that consistently topped 94 mph throughout two innings. He also had a tight slider and dominated Braves hitters in that time. If he can keep this type of work up through the rest of March, there is no way that any other pitcher could compete. Unfortunately, in his third inning of work he began to lose command and walked a couple of hitters. He was bailed out by an excellent diving stop and double play by Brennan Boesch. In short, Andy Oliver has taken the early lead in the competition for the Tigers fifth spot in the starting rotation. His spot will solidify if he can show over the next couple of weeks that he can control his fastball.

2012 AL Central Analysis and Predictions (Part 3)

After taking an in depth look at the Central, the bottom line is this... The AL Central is the worst division in baseball, in competition with the NL Central, and only has one legitimate contender within its ranks. The Detroit Tigers will win at least 100 games and will contend for the world series in 2011. The Kansas City Royals will finally break through and take a step toward contending for the wild card and be 10 games better than they were last year. (As long as the injury bug stays far away.)  The rest of the AL Central will be both worse and bad. Really bad. The White Sox, Twins, and Indians will be out of the race by the All Star break and will begin rebuilding when this reality lands heavy on their front office come July. With no major moves in the off season, and question marks across all three rosters, the Indians, Twins and White Sox will need divine intervention to help cross the .500 mark. Not even an act of God could get them in a playoff race come September. 

Here is how we see the Central finishing. 

2012 AL Central Analysis and Predictions (Part 1)

With spring in full swing, it is time to take a look at the AL Central and make predictions for 2012 within the context of a three part series to be published in the next week. The first part will be posted today, obviously and will take a look at the Tigers and the Twins. The second part will be published Wednesday,  February 29 and will deal with the Royals, Indians and White Sox. The final part of the series will be published on March 4, and will make final predictions on the results of the AL Central for 2012. Will the Indians be able to repeat their first half from 2011? Will the M and M boys return to their full potential for the Twins? How will Ozzie Guillen's move effect the White Sox? Will the Royals finally break through in 2012? What is the over/under on how many games the Tigers will actually win? Read forward for more...

Detroit Tigers

Why They Will Be Better

1.) Beef - Prince Fielder's bat.

2.) Slow Cooking - The continued refinement of young talent. Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Rick Porcello all have a couple of years under their belt and they are still young. They will continued to get better as the core that will bring the Tigers into the next generation.

3) Cutting the Fat - Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are gone. While they were key for the resurgence of the Tiger's team in the mid and late 2000's, last year proved they their bloated salaries and lack of production brought the team down. They are now off the team, which allowed the Tigers to bring in Prince Fielder.

Why They Will Be Worse 

Maybe back in September?

1.) Defense- With the exception of Austin Jackson and Alex Avila, all other positions will have middle tier or bottom tier abilities.

2.) Back End of the Bullpen - With an average age of over 35 years of age, Jose Valverde, Juaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel will not be able to pitch as many innings as they have in the past.

3.) VMart - More than anything we will miss his uncanny ability to drive in runs. Cabrera will still be protected by Prince Fielder, but the chances that Fielder can match Martinez's near .400 BA with runners in scoring position will runners is unlikely.

Minnesota Twins

Why They Will Be Better

1.) One of the M Boys - Joe Mauer will get more AB's as he spends less time behind the plate and more time at DH and at 1B.

2.) The Other of the M Boys - Morneau says that he is feeling better. Chances that he has a better season than last year are good. (.227BA 4HR 30RBI .285OBP) These horrific stats can't get much worse and are reason enough to say that The Twins will be better.

3.) Ron Gardenhire - The Twins skipper has won the American League Manager of the year award in 2010 and has finished as runner-up five times while leading the Twins (in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2009). He finished third in the voting in 2002, his first season as manager. He is one of the best around and has consistently made mediocre teams good over the past 10 years.

Why They Will Be Worse 

I am still Young.

1.) Young - While Delmon Young didn't produce well for the Twins last year, he did for the Tigers as they got him on the cheap. Young is still young (pun intended),

2.) Zumaya - Picking up Joel Zumaya was not a good idea. BTW... He already hurt his elbow in a simple throwing session. (Click here to read details.) Don't plan on him make a significant contribution in 2012, or ever again.  

3.) No Refining - After a brilliant 2009 season, Denard Span should have gotten better the last 2 years and he didn't. His disappointing seasons showed that he topped out as a big league ball player in 2009.

Sliding Scale