Down the Stretch They Come: This is Going to be Close

The bottom line for the Tigers over the past two months (Since June 1) is that they have been playing exceptionally better at home than on the road. Not unusual in baseball.

On the Road

14-14

At Home

20-9

With this in mind, we have good news for you as we forecast into the final two months of the season.

The Tigers have 29 remaining home games and 25 remaining away games.

At this pace, the Tigers should win another 33 games, finishing the season with 91 wins. We forecasted 86 wins to be enough to win the AL Central. So this should be enough... Right?

The problem of it all is that the White Sox basically have the same ratio of home vs. away games as the Tigers. 29 and 26. Pair this with the reality that the White Sox continue to play out of their minds, the race could be close. Very close. (If there was a comeback team of the year, it would have to go to the White Sox.)

To add to the equality of both team's schedules, they will both be playing an equal buffet of bottom dwellers in the AL Central heading into October.

The Tigers play the Royals and the Indians 25 times, while the White Sox play them 24 times.

With all of these factors in mind, our estimation is that the AL Central will come down to the 7 times that the White Sox and Tigers play each other in August and September. The team that wins that 7 game series will most likely be playing in October, while the other will be watching from home.

Opportunity Road Trip

Many have noted that the Tigers have now won 4 series in a row. This is good news for all of us and a transitional step out of our frustratingly slow start. Now... After climbing our way back up to only one game from .500 and 2.5 games out of first place, we head into an extensive and challenging road trip.

Some may look at this road trip as a bummer. Just as things are getting going, we have a giant mountain to face and will inevitably lose this positive momentum. Even Rod Allen was talking about the unlikeliness of even winning six of the ten games in the upcoming road trip during the broadcast yesterday.

I know that it has been a tough season and that cynicism is high, but there is another way to look at this. 

Sure this ten game stretch will be difficult, but let's also be mindful that this could also be an opportunity that we point back to at the end of the year and remember that this stretch was the moment that validated our team once again as a legitimate playoff contender.

We entered this year as the favorite and lost this role twenty games in. Forty games in we lost the role of even a contender. With a successful road trip against the Pirates, Rangers and Rays we could get this back.

How do we define successful? Playing competitive baseball and winning six of ten. Period. If we compete, winning six of ten should be inevitable with our team. If we make errors, run the bases poorly, pitch without focus, and have undisciplined at bats, then we will not win six out of ten. We will win 5 or less. Probably less.

Let's be honest though and also remember that regaining the "role" of contender is less important than actually being a contender and winning the appropriate amount of games to make it into October baseball. Hopefully this ten day stretch is a small piece in the puzzle of winning eighty five games, the minimum it will take to solidify a 2012 Tiger's AL Central championship.

We come home to an equally easy stretch of seven games against the bottom dwellers of the AL Central. If we can indeed go six and four on this road trip and then take five of seven against the Twins and the Royals, which are both tangible possibilities, then we will head into the break at 45-41. This ratio of winning would get us to 85 wins and going into playoff baseball as the most feared 85 game winning team in history.

Can I Be Frustrated Yet?

I live with a football coache's mindset. I get amped up. I overreact. I get fired up when things don't go as planned and more so, when people underperform. I have learned, and I believe it to be true, that this is a great attitude to have for sports such as football. Football has such a short season and every game has undeniable importance. Therefore, a fiery attitude may be the difference in winning one of the sixteen games during the season or not.

In contrast, this type of attitude for a baseball fan leads to chronic disappointment and even some anger. Therefore, at the advice of a best friend, I have been trying to adjust my mindset when the Tiger's season starts. I have even encouraged other to look past the Tiger's 16-17 start, their multiple blown save chances, their lack of timely hitting, and ultimately their bad baseball play. I tell them that this is a long season...every team loses games...and they play in the worst division in baseball and they will be fine when it comes to the post-season. I really believe this is true, but when is it okay to get frustrated?

This team was supposed to be solid. This team was hailed as a Fall Classic contender. The performance thus far raises serious questions about the team even making the playoffs (at this pace)!

This is a pep-talk, more-or-less to myself, but maybe other Tiger's fans will appreciate it as well.

3 goods:

1. Starting pitching....is good. This area of the team is pretty much as expected except for a few sporadic starts by Porcello and Scherzer. Verlander has battled in a few games, but still looks like himself. Fister is now back on the bump and looks great when he gets dialed in. Smyly (the 5th starter as predicted by this blod before the season) has been astounding - no more than 2 ER in any start this season! Porcello can be great and Scherzer is Scherzer...this staff, when given some (even minimal run support) will win games!

2. Austin Jackson...is hitting (8th in AL AVG!), getting on base (11th in AL OBP), and scoring (5th in AL Runs). This is getting done with unexpected, below expected hitting stats from the Tiger's 2-3-4 hitters! If he keeps this up and the Tiger's middle-of-the-order bats wake-up, AJAX will have a great season and it will translate to the Tigers winning games, and hopefully a lot of them.

3. The Tigers play in the AL Central. I don't need to expound upon this...this gives them room to play poorly early on and be in a fine spot to overtake the lead in the division...of this we can all be confident. 

3 bads:

1. No need to repeat; but I would just forward you to the previous post on this blog...we have to win the games we are leading after the 7th inning. Whatever changes the bullpen needs to make to be more lock-down and the offense beginning to learn how to add some runs during the late innings for comfort could not come soon enough. 

2. "The Prince and the Popper" / "Miggy and Biggy" / "The Bats of the Cats" - yadayadayada! You get the point. Miguel and Prince are not Miguel and Prince. Both have had some very long hitless games streaks. Both have been striking out a lot. And both are not producing like we all thought! The nice thing is that it is early, and it is much better they are cold now than in October...let's just hope they warm up  even a little bit.

3. 2B!!!! Glad that Brandon Inge is gone...but seriously - our 3 options at second base are abysmal at best...the Tiger's need a second-baseman who can consistently, simply get on base!! Let's hope "D-squared" can put together a nice little trade for a good defense and solid offensive 2B, because it is very futile for the Tiger's to continue to hope that either Santiago, Raburn, or Worth will suddenly turn into good players at the dish. They did that with B-Inge for the better part of ten seasons and it never worked - it won't with these guys either!

Let's end this by saying....it is still only May 13th. They play in the AL Central...and they have the majority of the pieces that they need to be a productive winning team and they probably will. This little rant just allows those of us with a football mindset to vent a little so we can still maintain an even-keel!

Go Tigers!!!