Can I Be Frustrated Yet?

I live with a football coache's mindset. I get amped up. I overreact. I get fired up when things don't go as planned and more so, when people underperform. I have learned, and I believe it to be true, that this is a great attitude to have for sports such as football. Football has such a short season and every game has undeniable importance. Therefore, a fiery attitude may be the difference in winning one of the sixteen games during the season or not.

In contrast, this type of attitude for a baseball fan leads to chronic disappointment and even some anger. Therefore, at the advice of a best friend, I have been trying to adjust my mindset when the Tiger's season starts. I have even encouraged other to look past the Tiger's 16-17 start, their multiple blown save chances, their lack of timely hitting, and ultimately their bad baseball play. I tell them that this is a long season...every team loses games...and they play in the worst division in baseball and they will be fine when it comes to the post-season. I really believe this is true, but when is it okay to get frustrated?

This team was supposed to be solid. This team was hailed as a Fall Classic contender. The performance thus far raises serious questions about the team even making the playoffs (at this pace)!

This is a pep-talk, more-or-less to myself, but maybe other Tiger's fans will appreciate it as well.

3 goods:

1. Starting pitching....is good. This area of the team is pretty much as expected except for a few sporadic starts by Porcello and Scherzer. Verlander has battled in a few games, but still looks like himself. Fister is now back on the bump and looks great when he gets dialed in. Smyly (the 5th starter as predicted by this blod before the season) has been astounding - no more than 2 ER in any start this season! Porcello can be great and Scherzer is Scherzer...this staff, when given some (even minimal run support) will win games!

2. Austin Jackson...is hitting (8th in AL AVG!), getting on base (11th in AL OBP), and scoring (5th in AL Runs). This is getting done with unexpected, below expected hitting stats from the Tiger's 2-3-4 hitters! If he keeps this up and the Tiger's middle-of-the-order bats wake-up, AJAX will have a great season and it will translate to the Tigers winning games, and hopefully a lot of them.

3. The Tigers play in the AL Central. I don't need to expound upon this...this gives them room to play poorly early on and be in a fine spot to overtake the lead in the division...of this we can all be confident. 

3 bads:

1. No need to repeat; but I would just forward you to the previous post on this blog...we have to win the games we are leading after the 7th inning. Whatever changes the bullpen needs to make to be more lock-down and the offense beginning to learn how to add some runs during the late innings for comfort could not come soon enough. 

2. "The Prince and the Popper" / "Miggy and Biggy" / "The Bats of the Cats" - yadayadayada! You get the point. Miguel and Prince are not Miguel and Prince. Both have had some very long hitless games streaks. Both have been striking out a lot. And both are not producing like we all thought! The nice thing is that it is early, and it is much better they are cold now than in October...let's just hope they warm up  even a little bit.

3. 2B!!!! Glad that Brandon Inge is gone...but seriously - our 3 options at second base are abysmal at best...the Tiger's need a second-baseman who can consistently, simply get on base!! Let's hope "D-squared" can put together a nice little trade for a good defense and solid offensive 2B, because it is very futile for the Tiger's to continue to hope that either Santiago, Raburn, or Worth will suddenly turn into good players at the dish. They did that with B-Inge for the better part of ten seasons and it never worked - it won't with these guys either!

Let's end this by saying....it is still only May 13th. They play in the AL Central...and they have the majority of the pieces that they need to be a productive winning team and they probably will. This little rant just allows those of us with a football mindset to vent a little so we can still maintain an even-keel!

Go Tigers!!!

Brandon Inge and Dombroski's Contract Sweepstakes

The release of Brandon Inge today is bittersweet for most of the Tiger faithful. Bitter in that Inge has been a mainstay on the Tiger's roster for 12 years. He has seen the best or times and the worst of times. He has played in a world series with Detroit and he has lost 119 games in one season with the Tigers.

His departure however is also sweet. Coming off a wretched seven game stretch against the Rangers and the Mariners, something had to be done, and Inge was the low hanging fruit. Never in the history of baseball has such a poor performer consistently been given so many AB's at third base. His numbers are embarrassing for the entire state of Michigan and any replacement will instantly mean more wins for the Tigers.

Many of these wasted AB's over the years go on Jim Leyland. He liked Inge and he allowed his relationship with him to veil the reality of what he was producing on the field. Overall, however,

we have to place the majority of Inge's wasted AB's over the past two years on Dave Dombrowski for signing him to that ridiculous contract. In 2010 he gave him a two year contract worth over 11.5 million dollars. Dave seemed to have learned from this mistake by not signing Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Guillen last winter and I hope this trend of refusing to sign aging talent stays consistent as we move into some potential golden years of Tigers baseball.

Overall Brandon Inge... We at Detroit Tigers Storyline never liked you as a baseball player. Let's be honest... You mostly sucked. But as a human, some people seem to like you. Way to go for that. Hope that your time in the minor leagues, playing for foreign baseball organizations is fun, and that you finally get rid of those lame tattoos. At least cover them up for fans.

Just for memories sake: One last boo for Inge.

Boo.

Time to move on.

Questions Answered for Opening Day

There were two main questions that were to be worked out as we moved to the final roster and the beginning of the season. Especially once we worked through how the team would function with both Fielder and Cabrera in the lineup. Both have been answered as the Red Sox come to Comerica tomorrow. 

1.) The Tigers 5th Starter

From the edges has emerged Drew Smyly. With Jacob Turner having a spotty spring, including an injury and Andy Oliver slowing down at the end of our time in Lakeland, Drew Smyly will be our guy... At least for the first quarter of the season. 

What to expect: With his solid performance in spring, Smyly will have numerous opportunities to cement his spot on the Tiger's rotation. However, expect for Oliver and Turner to emerge on the scene with any injuries or with inevitable poor performance by anyone out of the bullpen.

2.) The Second Extra Infielder

We knew that one of the three would not be on the roster. It was either going to be Brandon Inge, Ramon Santiago or Danny Worth. This decision was made easy through Inge's pulled groin. The question will now become whether or not Inge will be one the team or sent to Toledo once he returns. 

What to expect: Once Inge is better, he will begin at AAA and then earn his way back onto the team with good enough numbers heading into the summer. Whether or not he and his 6 million dollar salary will compete well enough to say is anyone's guess. 

Inge to Toledo and Worth to Stay?

There are advantages and disadvantages in sending Brandon Inge to Toledo to begin the year. As stated in the last post, with his performance this spring, Ryan Raburn has all but locked up second base. This leaves two spots for three potential infielders on the roster and important decisions for Jim Leyland and company to make prior to moving up north after spring training.

The three characters that are a part of this drama around the two spots in the infield are Ramon Santiago, Danny Worth and Brandon Inge. With his consistent and humble play, Ramon Santiago will undoubtedly head to Detroit with the team. This leaves one spot for either Worth or Inge.

It will be generally assumed that Inge will have this spot. With his bloated salary and declining ability to compete at the MLB level, maybe proper consideration should be given to Worth instead. The future will be with Worth, experience for the young infielder will be invaluable for the coming years, and his offensive and defensive productivity will be better than that of his counter part.

On the other hand Inge can't get any worse than he was last year. He is bound to hit better and to play solid defense at 2B, which could be beneficial in light of the rest of what is bound to be a sloppy defensive year in the infield in Detroit. More importantly, he is the patriarch of the clubhouse and his experience will be beneficial for keeping the glue strong in the midst of the relationships of the various characters on the club's team.

The decision will be difficult, and both players will get time on the diamond this year, but the decision that the team makes for who comes to Comerica in April will have implications.

The Over/Under on Rayburn Locking Up 2B

How many more days until Jim Leyland officially places Brandon Inge where he belongs, and announces Ryan Raburn as the everyday starting second baseman for the Detroit Tigers? There are exactly 18 days until the Tigers take the field against the Red Sox and as far as we are concerned, the "battle" for second base actually ended before spring even started. As spring training has unfolded, the inevitable has emerged. Here is a comparison of numbers between the two. 

          Brandon Inge

9G 25AB 3R 6H 1HR 1RBI .240BA .736OPS

          Ryan Raburn

8G 21AB 6R 10H 5HR 15RBI .476BA 1.859OPS

As if the past two year's of stats weren't enough, this spring has decided who should be at second. With all of this in mind, we will be placing the over under on the number of days until Raburn is announced as the starting second baseman at 11 days. He should have at least a week to settle in and prepare for the season ahead.

BRANDON INGE: Making the Tigers Worse Since 2001

I was not going to write about Brandon “Strike-Me-Out” Inge on this blog… I was going to hold back my words when related to him. This was shaping up to be a fairly easy thing to do this season because we signed Prince, and then Miggy moved to the three-bag…therefore, Brandon Inge was only going to play very sparingly. I thought we were getting lucky! However, this confidence of not having to deal with Inge a lot this season, recently took a new spin. Apparently, Inge, instead of going to his manager, he went above Leyland’s head and asked Mr. Dombrowski for a chance to compete for the second-base position – then Dombrowsi forwarded this request to Leyland…basically saying that he told Leyland to let Inge compete for a starting job.

Some might say, “Why not let him compete? Competition for the position will make the team better.” I would tend to agree that competition makes players better, but not when the outcome is based on a stacked deck…the Tigers have this weird, ill-formed allegiance to Brandon Inge that is based on...well, nothing. So, just the fact that they are letting him compete for the job makes me anxious that he will probably end up getting to play there. As my friend recently typed on my Facebook wall:

Ramon Santiago… 258 AB .260 BA 5 HR 30 RBI

Ryan Raburn… 387 AB .256 BA 14 HR 49 RBI

Brandon Inge… 269 AB .197 BA 3 HR 23 RBI

Why are we even having this conversation?

Here is why…because Brandon Inge is worse for the Tigers than even his ridiculous batting average would suggest. Not only does he hurt the Tigers with his miserable baseball skills; while at the same time thinking he is actually good. He is hurting the Tigers with his selfish, all-about-me attitude. Instead of being happy that his TEAM upgraded at third base, and taking a role as a backup for a World Series contender, (which is well above his skill-level) he chooses instead to put himself and his inflated, delusional ego in the fray for second-base, so he doesn’t have to play as a backup. Instead of letting a well-deserving Ramon Santiago, who has played for the Tigers almost as long as Inge, and who actually helps the team both defensively and is not a disaster offensively get his first shot at starting. Or, if not Santiago, how about a younger and just-as-passionate player like Raburn. But no! Instead of the team putting their vote of confidence behind the other team members, Inge has to throw his poor attempt at baseball skills in the way – because hurting the team with his lack of skills was not enough, now he is becoming selfish and delusional – its time to go Inge!

Prince Fielder in Detroit Version 2.0

We bought Prince Fielder today and it is kind of like smoking, or eating too much pizza. In the short term it can feel so right, but in the long run, it can lead to problems. But let's not focus on the problems of the future today. (We'll save that for a future conversation.) Let's, for right now, focus on what this means for the 2012 Detroit Tigers.

Los Buenos

We'll see if he can top his dad's 1990 season.

1.) Boy can hit. In 7 seasons, these have been his numbers.

4120 PA | 230 HR | 656 RBI | 566 BB | .282 BA | .390 OBP | .929 OPS

So not only can he hit. He can hit better than just about any player on the planet, with the exception of one or two. (Like the guy hitting in front of him in the Tiger's lineup.)

2.) He can protect Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. We all know that Victor was incredible in this spot last year. This important spot in the lineup looked all but lost when Victor tore his ACL, yet the promise of protecting Miguel is back in place.

3.) The Tigers will add at least an extra 30 runs scored this year, putting them at an estimated 817 runs total scored in 2012

4.) Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch will see an increase in productivity as the 1 and 2 hitters in the lineup. (Fantasy baseball golden 8th round picks!)

5.) Brandon Inge can find his rightful spot off the hot corner in Detroit. 

6.) We have secured one of the best hitters in the game for the past six years for a total of nine years.

7.) We will win the Central and have a shot at making a run in the world series.

8.) The door is open to trade 3B hot prospect Nick Castellanos for better middle relief pitching.

Keep the glove down.

Los Malos

1.) Miguel at third base. There is already enough written online... Google it or see Cockcroft's article here for details.

2.) We spent 214 million dollars on a man that hasn't won a world series, or a pennant for that matter, can't keep himself in shape, and has shown inconsistencies in his brief time in MLB.

3.) The real problem/gift emerges in 2013 when Victor returns and Miguel has to play at 3B every day. This could get real ugly. Jason Beck put it well.

"Cabrera finished 20th out of 22 qualifying Major League third basemen in 2007 with a .941 fielding percentage; his 2.51 Range Factor ranked 14th. He was 13th out of 20 in fielding percentage in 2006, and 16th in range."

4.) By the way, Prince is also one of the worst fielding 1B in MLB. This makes our infield the slowest and heaviest infield in the history of MLB. Our total weight in the infield (1B, 2B, 3B, SS), depending on who plays second base, could exceed 1,100 pounds!

5.) Don't expect the same production out of Prince playing at Comerica. It is a pitchers park.

6.) The Tigers will give up an extra 20 runs this year, putting them at 731 runs given up. 

Game Fixes

1.) When Porcello or Fister pitch, we play Don Kelley or that guy named Inge at 3B as these pitchers make a living on getting ground ball outs. Place either Miguel or Prince at 1B and allow the other to DH.

2.) Don't be ashamed to give Prince or Miguel a day off and allow them to pinch hit for Inge/Kelley in the mid-late innings.

3.) Force either Miguel or Prince to accept a role as a permanent DH. if Miguel is too ugly at 3B.

4.) Keep Prince away for the Reuben Sandwiches at Zingerman's Deli.

The Sabermetrics of 2012 Detroit Tigers

I picked up Moneyball a bit early this year. With the passing of the holidays, I have learned that it is wise for me to at least wait until February to begin putting together a fantasy baseball team, or watching The Natural, or beginning to read a book like Moneyball... But I couldn't resist as I have never read the book and it has been on my nightstand for a couple of months. I have been intrigued by the book, especially the chapter on Bill James and his creation of sabermetrics. Bill James essentially created a whole new way of looking at baseball statistics in the 1970's and he called this method sabermetrics. Here is an example of one of his equations.

James suggests that instead of gauging defense by errors, instead we should gauge defense thought Range Factor (RF), which is, as seen above, putouts plus assists divided by the amount of games played.

Easy enough, I thought to myself as read through the chapter. And then I began imagining putting together an equation for the success of the Detroit Tigers 2012 season, and this is what emerged.

Thus... Last year this number would have been approximately 3.73, assuming the Leyland is burning at least 3 cigarettes per game in the tunnel. 

.317 + 3 + 4.37

______________

(1 + 0 + 102)/50

This number almost got us to the world series.  If this number can raise to over 4.15, I bet our team will be dancing with the trophy in October.

Stuck With Brandon Inge?

Its time to be honest. Brandon Inge is not a good major league baseball player. In fact, one might argue that he has been the worst every day third baseman over the past 10 years. I dare you to find another with worse numbers than these. 

The fact that he has been bad isn’t my concern heading into the 2012 season. Its the fact that he has been getting worse every year for the past 3 years that makes me concerned. How bad could it get it 2012? .172 BA, 3 HR, 43 RBI? My God I want to gag. He might be the only player in Tiger's history to have a negative WAR. (Well... Maybe Gary Pettis too...)

Another moment of honesty that this youtube video articulates quite well.

The people who love Brandon Inge are white, and there are a lot of white people in Michigan. I guarantee that you will not find a black man wearing an Inge jersey at Comerica Park. Just doesn’t happen. White position players in Mo-Town have been sparse, and Inge has been a place for Anglos to place their story within the Tigers story over the past 10 years. This camaraderie has to stop, as we have to get him off the hot corner. But can it happen?

The overarching problem with Inge is on Dumb-browski. He signed him to that ridiculous 2 year deal for 11.5 million. Here is my fear. We are in bed with that contract and won't be able to shake it. It took the extremes of Inge's performance last year to get us to even think about it and he still got 303 Plate Appearances... Most of which were wasted. Unfortunately, this year he will be back on the hot corner. We will have to put up with his strike outs, his whining, and his embarrassing facial hair.  That is until he is so bad that we trade away young talent to replace him, or have a miracle happen in Toledo. Come on Castellanos!

So the worst part of the article is this. We are stuck with him. We are stuck with his lack of production at the plate, his completely mediocre defence, that's right, I said it... And with his lame tattoos. May the white people rejoice.