Detroit's Schedule Significantly Easier Heading Down the Stretch

We always admire Jim Leyland in his ability to lineup our pitching rotation to our advantage. For instance, he recently tweaked our staff schedule in order that Verlander might pitch twice against the White Sox down the stretch. In the midst of his recent struggle, this was especially important as Verlander has been dominate against the White Sox of late. (11-1 in his last 13 starts.)

This is why last night's postponement is an advantage for the White Sox. Not only will the Tigers have to swing through Chicago for an inconvenient one day road trip after time in Cleveland, but they will not have to face Verlander in what is the most important game left on the schedule for both teams.

The upside? The Tigers schedule is easier than that of the White Sox after the game next Monday. The Tigers will have nine games at home and only six on the road, with only three against a team over .500. (The sliding Oakland A's.) The White Sox on the other hand, have 6 games at home and 9 on the road, playing 7 of the fifteen games against team over .500. (Including the surging Angels and playoff hungry Rays.)

All in all it was a successful road trip to Chicago and all things look to be in place for another playoff run in 2012.

Leyland in Question

Jim Leyland recently said that several players are underachieving and need to step up. Maybe Jim should also place himself in this category.

There is are two important statistics and how they interact that lead us to questioning Jimmy.

Stat number 1. 

DETROIT TEAM BATTING AVERAGE

.263

6th in MLB

Stat number 2. 

DETROIT RUNS SCORED

241

15th in MLB

Sure, timely hitting by the batters has much to do with this. But let's not leave Leyland off the hook here. Runs produced vs. Batting Average is a key indicator to how a manager is doing. (Timing of hit and runs, and overall base running strategy is set by the manager.)

On the flip side, look at how the Indians are doing here.

Stat number 1. 

INDIANS TEAM BATTING AVERAGE

.250

17th in MLB

Stat number 2. 

INDIANS RUNS SCORED

246

11th in MLB

The Indians and Tigers have each scored approximately the same amount of runs and given up the same amount of runs.

The only difference... 5 wins. Props to Manny Acta.

Do these embarrassing stats fall on Leyland? Again... Not completely. But these realities should also not be ignored.

Detroit Baseball Hurts My Stomach

Here are ten reasons why it is really hard to watch the Tigers play baseball right now.

1. Miscues by umpires against the Rangers. (The curse of Jim Joyce.)

2. Miscues by umpires against the Red Sox. (The curse of Jim Joyce.)

3. Miscues by umpires against other teams. (The curse of Jim Joyce.)

4. Why do umpires hate the Tigers?

5. Our inability to turn a double play. 

6. Max Scherzer's ability to strike people out but inability to win.

7. Our inability to get a big 2 out hit.

8. 560,341,285,019 runners LOB.

9. The play of our second basemen.

10. The scary comparison with the 2007 disaster.

Brandon Inge and Dombroski's Contract Sweepstakes

The release of Brandon Inge today is bittersweet for most of the Tiger faithful. Bitter in that Inge has been a mainstay on the Tiger's roster for 12 years. He has seen the best or times and the worst of times. He has played in a world series with Detroit and he has lost 119 games in one season with the Tigers.

His departure however is also sweet. Coming off a wretched seven game stretch against the Rangers and the Mariners, something had to be done, and Inge was the low hanging fruit. Never in the history of baseball has such a poor performer consistently been given so many AB's at third base. His numbers are embarrassing for the entire state of Michigan and any replacement will instantly mean more wins for the Tigers.

Many of these wasted AB's over the years go on Jim Leyland. He liked Inge and he allowed his relationship with him to veil the reality of what he was producing on the field. Overall, however,

we have to place the majority of Inge's wasted AB's over the past two years on Dave Dombrowski for signing him to that ridiculous contract. In 2010 he gave him a two year contract worth over 11.5 million dollars. Dave seemed to have learned from this mistake by not signing Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Guillen last winter and I hope this trend of refusing to sign aging talent stays consistent as we move into some potential golden years of Tigers baseball.

Overall Brandon Inge... We at Detroit Tigers Storyline never liked you as a baseball player. Let's be honest... You mostly sucked. But as a human, some people seem to like you. Way to go for that. Hope that your time in the minor leagues, playing for foreign baseball organizations is fun, and that you finally get rid of those lame tattoos. At least cover them up for fans.

Just for memories sake: One last boo for Inge.

Boo.

Time to move on.

Jose Valverde and the 579 Day Streak

There have been 579 days since Jose Valverde last blew a save. That is a long time. To put his 51 game streak into perspective, it was quietly the third longest streak in the history of major league baseball.

Eric Gagne has a streak of 84 saves in a row back in 2003 and 2004. Eric Gagne broke the previous record of fifty-four consecutive saves set by Tom Gordon of the Boston Red Sox from April 19, 1998 through June 5, 1999. Valverde now stands third. 

While the streak would have been fun to continue through this season, Jim Leyland said it best.

"When I say this, I mean it," Leyland said. "In a way, I'm glad that streak's over because it puts that behind us and we can just go forward."

While there is no doubt that the professional nature of the Tiger clubhouse would have managed the streak well, Leyland does have a point. Working through the tweaks of the new faces and keeping the team focused on winning the AL Central can now remain the obvious priority. 

In the midst or quietly aging, Valverde had a good spring (10IP 2.70ERA 10k 1BB) and his stuff today looked the same as last year. (Similar velocity and movement.)  So... Don't worry about him this season. His streak had to end at some point and expect him to continue to be the rock solid foundation to the Tiger's bullpen.

The Sabermetrics of 2012 Detroit Tigers

I picked up Moneyball a bit early this year. With the passing of the holidays, I have learned that it is wise for me to at least wait until February to begin putting together a fantasy baseball team, or watching The Natural, or beginning to read a book like Moneyball... But I couldn't resist as I have never read the book and it has been on my nightstand for a couple of months. I have been intrigued by the book, especially the chapter on Bill James and his creation of sabermetrics. Bill James essentially created a whole new way of looking at baseball statistics in the 1970's and he called this method sabermetrics. Here is an example of one of his equations.

James suggests that instead of gauging defense by errors, instead we should gauge defense thought Range Factor (RF), which is, as seen above, putouts plus assists divided by the amount of games played.

Easy enough, I thought to myself as read through the chapter. And then I began imagining putting together an equation for the success of the Detroit Tigers 2012 season, and this is what emerged.

Thus... Last year this number would have been approximately 3.73, assuming the Leyland is burning at least 3 cigarettes per game in the tunnel. 

.317 + 3 + 4.37

______________

(1 + 0 + 102)/50

This number almost got us to the world series.  If this number can raise to over 4.15, I bet our team will be dancing with the trophy in October.