AL Central Analysis and Predictions (Part 2)

Chicago White Sox

Why They Will Be Better

1.) Ozzie - While his leadership to the world series in 2005 was outstanding, there has been mucho frustration and little success since. New skipper, Robin Ventura, will be a great addition to the team as he bleeds black and white from his playing days on the south side.

2.) Dunn - .159BA 11HR 42RBI .292OBP literally could not get worse. Even a small improvement, or an injury to Dunn with any number of replacements will be better. Overall, expect a better season now that Dunn knows American League pitching. Predicting .220BA 35HR 90RBI and .320OBP.

3.) Refining Infield - Young talent in the form of Gordon Beckham and Alexi Ramirez have been on the rise the past couple of years. With extensive experience under their belts, they should be ready to lead the next generation of White Sox.

I am getting fat.

Why They Will Be Worse

1.) Ozzie - While the past couple of years have been disappointing, so have been many of the seasons of Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and the like. Ozzie knows how to lead his team to a championship as shown in 2005. He is also a great motivator and leader. While Ventura is an exciting replacement, Ozzie will be missed on the bench and at the helm.

2.) Swiss Cheese Bullpen - There are openings in the bullpen for the White Sox and no one is clear who is going to fill the voids. Matt Thorton of Grand Valley State Univeristy (Go Lakers!) will begin the year as the closer. The problem is that his closing didn't go well last year as he was just 3 for 7 in save opportunities. Other prospects will have to come out of thin air to cover the holes in the cheese of the rest of Chicago's pen. 

3.) Carlos' Vacancy - Carlos Quentin and his 27 HR per year as a White Sox outfielder are gone and the city is hoping that Dayan Viciedo will be able to take his place. Viciendo showed promise in 2010, but took a large step backward in 2011. He has big shoes to fill, and the chances of him filling are slim.

Kansas City Royals

Why they Will Be Better

1.) Core - Mike Moustakas, Johnny Giavotella, and Salvador Perez moved from unknowns with great potential, to known talent with experience under their belt. They will all be even better this year.

2.) Hosmer - This guy is a beast. .293BA 19HR 78RBI .799OPS in his first 523 AB as a major leaguer. We watched him hit an opposite field bomb last year that had people talking of his special talent. If his potential comes together this year, the Royals could gain 5 wins off of his bat.

3.) Pitching - If Paulino and Hochevar give the Royals over 400 innings over the course of the season, which is quite likely, the Royals will improve on their innings pitched by starters, which ranked 24th last year, and give themselves a better shot an winning games late in the season. 

Why They Will Be Worse

Future star.

1.) Echos - Since 2010, we have been reading that this is the year that the Royals young core will finally break through. The question is now becoming... Will the young core ever break through?

2.) Star Power - Every successful team in history has had at least one star player. A player that can draw both a walk in the ninth and fans in the seats. Hosmer is not there... Yet. There is no one else on the roster that can draw.

3.) Little Room - All of the cards need to fall correctly for the Royals to compete this year. There is little room for error and one injury or one underachieving player could deconstruct the whole season.

Cleveland Indians

Why They Will Be Better

1.) Sizemore - Indian's fans have been waiting for years for Grady Sizemore to make a full return as one of the premier center fielders in baseball. While he will never again be a premier center fielder, there are five outfield prospects all on the Indian's 40 man roster born in or after 1986. Michael Brantley got gobs of experience last year with 451AB and Ezequiel Carrera hopes to build on his 10SB last season in 2012.

2.) Santana - Santana's numbers from last year have left him at the top of every fantasy player's draft list. The best part about drafting Santana will be his upside as there is still much room for improvement in his BA, OBP, and OPS.

Why They Will Be Worse

1.) Name Game - Can you name three pitchers on the Cleveland staff? Neither could we. Will off season acquisitions of Kevin Slowey from Minnesota and Derek Lowe from Atlanta pan out? Not likely as both have been on the decline for three years. The one pitcher you may have been able to name is mid season acquisition Ubaldo Jimenez. FYI... He was already having a bad year in Colorado (4.46 ERA) and things got worse in Cleveland (5.10 ERA). Don't expect him to recover 

2.) 1B - Good teams without good first basemen have been few and far between since the 1980's. The Indians do not have a top or even middle tier first basemen. Casey Kotchman and Matt Laporta will duke it out this spring, but neither would compete on most MLB teams.

3.) Fast Start - According to Buster Olney at ESPN, the Indians have the easiest schedule to begin the year. Expect a quick start and a slow decline that will lead to the frustration and eventual demise of this year's squad.

2012 AL Central Analysis and Predictions (Part 1)

With spring in full swing, it is time to take a look at the AL Central and make predictions for 2012 within the context of a three part series to be published in the next week. The first part will be posted today, obviously and will take a look at the Tigers and the Twins. The second part will be published Wednesday,  February 29 and will deal with the Royals, Indians and White Sox. The final part of the series will be published on March 4, and will make final predictions on the results of the AL Central for 2012. Will the Indians be able to repeat their first half from 2011? Will the M and M boys return to their full potential for the Twins? How will Ozzie Guillen's move effect the White Sox? Will the Royals finally break through in 2012? What is the over/under on how many games the Tigers will actually win? Read forward for more...

Detroit Tigers

Why They Will Be Better

1.) Beef - Prince Fielder's bat.

2.) Slow Cooking - The continued refinement of young talent. Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Rick Porcello all have a couple of years under their belt and they are still young. They will continued to get better as the core that will bring the Tigers into the next generation.

3) Cutting the Fat - Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are gone. While they were key for the resurgence of the Tiger's team in the mid and late 2000's, last year proved they their bloated salaries and lack of production brought the team down. They are now off the team, which allowed the Tigers to bring in Prince Fielder.

Why They Will Be Worse 

Maybe back in September?

1.) Defense- With the exception of Austin Jackson and Alex Avila, all other positions will have middle tier or bottom tier abilities.

2.) Back End of the Bullpen - With an average age of over 35 years of age, Jose Valverde, Juaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel will not be able to pitch as many innings as they have in the past.

3.) VMart - More than anything we will miss his uncanny ability to drive in runs. Cabrera will still be protected by Prince Fielder, but the chances that Fielder can match Martinez's near .400 BA with runners in scoring position will runners is unlikely.

Minnesota Twins

Why They Will Be Better

1.) One of the M Boys - Joe Mauer will get more AB's as he spends less time behind the plate and more time at DH and at 1B.

2.) The Other of the M Boys - Morneau says that he is feeling better. Chances that he has a better season than last year are good. (.227BA 4HR 30RBI .285OBP) These horrific stats can't get much worse and are reason enough to say that The Twins will be better.

3.) Ron Gardenhire - The Twins skipper has won the American League Manager of the year award in 2010 and has finished as runner-up five times while leading the Twins (in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2009). He finished third in the voting in 2002, his first season as manager. He is one of the best around and has consistently made mediocre teams good over the past 10 years.

Why They Will Be Worse 

I am still Young.

1.) Young - While Delmon Young didn't produce well for the Twins last year, he did for the Tigers as they got him on the cheap. Young is still young (pun intended),

2.) Zumaya - Picking up Joel Zumaya was not a good idea. BTW... He already hurt his elbow in a simple throwing session. (Click here to read details.) Don't plan on him make a significant contribution in 2012, or ever again.  

3.) No Refining - After a brilliant 2009 season, Denard Span should have gotten better the last 2 years and he didn't. His disappointing seasons showed that he topped out as a big league ball player in 2009.

Sliding Scale

Our Geriatric Bullpen

While many are concerned about the front end of the bullpen, which has obvious reasons for such concern, might we argue today that the real concern lies in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. Allow me to explain. 

The concern is not founded upon talent. With Dotel, Benoit, and Valverde all in position to have another great year, the talent is present. The problem lies in a different area... The potential disaster lies within their age. 

Careful of the knees.

Let us not forget that Jose Valverde is 33 and will turn 34 before the beginning of the season.

Juaquin Benoit is 34 and will turn 35 just after the All Star Break. 

Octavio Dotel clocks in at 38 and will turn 39 after the world series that he will hopefully be pitching within. 

This puts our average age of pitching in the final three innings of games this year at 35.6 years of age. 

All this to say, the back end of the Tiger's bullpen is loaded with talent and experience. However, that experience comes with great risk of break down and injury. The injury history of these three pitchers has been consistently positive over the years, but time will tell and time might take its toll on our geriatric stoppers in 2012. Be prepared for late season acquisitions to cover for one or more of these three needing time to recover.

BRANDON INGE: Making the Tigers Worse Since 2001

I was not going to write about Brandon “Strike-Me-Out” Inge on this blog… I was going to hold back my words when related to him. This was shaping up to be a fairly easy thing to do this season because we signed Prince, and then Miggy moved to the three-bag…therefore, Brandon Inge was only going to play very sparingly. I thought we were getting lucky! However, this confidence of not having to deal with Inge a lot this season, recently took a new spin. Apparently, Inge, instead of going to his manager, he went above Leyland’s head and asked Mr. Dombrowski for a chance to compete for the second-base position – then Dombrowsi forwarded this request to Leyland…basically saying that he told Leyland to let Inge compete for a starting job.

Some might say, “Why not let him compete? Competition for the position will make the team better.” I would tend to agree that competition makes players better, but not when the outcome is based on a stacked deck…the Tigers have this weird, ill-formed allegiance to Brandon Inge that is based on...well, nothing. So, just the fact that they are letting him compete for the job makes me anxious that he will probably end up getting to play there. As my friend recently typed on my Facebook wall:

Ramon Santiago… 258 AB .260 BA 5 HR 30 RBI

Ryan Raburn… 387 AB .256 BA 14 HR 49 RBI

Brandon Inge… 269 AB .197 BA 3 HR 23 RBI

Why are we even having this conversation?

Here is why…because Brandon Inge is worse for the Tigers than even his ridiculous batting average would suggest. Not only does he hurt the Tigers with his miserable baseball skills; while at the same time thinking he is actually good. He is hurting the Tigers with his selfish, all-about-me attitude. Instead of being happy that his TEAM upgraded at third base, and taking a role as a backup for a World Series contender, (which is well above his skill-level) he chooses instead to put himself and his inflated, delusional ego in the fray for second-base, so he doesn’t have to play as a backup. Instead of letting a well-deserving Ramon Santiago, who has played for the Tigers almost as long as Inge, and who actually helps the team both defensively and is not a disaster offensively get his first shot at starting. Or, if not Santiago, how about a younger and just-as-passionate player like Raburn. But no! Instead of the team putting their vote of confidence behind the other team members, Inge has to throw his poor attempt at baseball skills in the way – because hurting the team with his lack of skills was not enough, now he is becoming selfish and delusional – its time to go Inge!

The Yearly Tradition of Miguel Cabrera Weight Loss

According to Alex Avila on ESPN's Baseball Tonight, Migual Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this off season. The chances of this being true, despite Avila's positive spin, are slim. (Excuse the pun.) Allow me to remind us that a yearly announcement of weight loss on Miguel Cabrera has been a regular tradition in the life of the best hitter in baseball. 

This one is from 2007 from the LA Times.

"Concerns about Miguel Cabrera's work ethic and weight have raised questions about whether the Angels should send four top young players, including second baseman Howie Kendrick and catcher Jeff Mathis, to Florida in a deal for the third baseman.
But Cabrera, one of the hottest commodities on the trading floor of baseball's winter meetings, is making a significant effort to address those issues, having recently begun a rigorous winter workout and nutritional program in Davie, Fla. "He looks good," said Angels catcher Mike Napoli, who has been training with Cabrera for the last three weeks. "He's starting to slim down, and he's getting real strong.""

Here is a reminder from a USA today article in 2008, when Cabrera joined the team.

The highlight under the subtitle "New training regimen"

"Cabrera will not talk about his weight loss. The Tigers list him at 240, about 20-25 pounds lighter than he was with the Marlins last season. But right after the season ended, Cabrera hired a personal trainer who helped him develop workouts and eating habits that made his body stronger. He worked out four hours a day, five days a week, and lost 10 pounds by the time the Tigers acquired him at the winter meetings in early December."

And then look at this one from Mlive from 2010. It is less about losing weight, and more about intending to lose weight in 2010. (We know this didn't happen as Miguel has weighed as high as 300 lbs according to other local bloggers.)

"One of the Tigers who showed up to Lakeland, Fla. looking good is Miguel Cabrera. And, according to FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi, Cabrera intends to look even better by Opening Day in Kansas City. Detroit's first baseman would like to drop 10 more pounds by then."

All this to say that just because another season of a Miguel Cabrera weight loss is right around the corner, don't buy into the hype. The news hits harder this year because of his transition to 3B. We'll see how he really looks standing at the hot corner on April 5 in Comerica against the Red Sox. And let's remember, that even at 300 pounds, the man can still hit, so don't be too disappointed if Avila's words are a bit exaggerated.

 

Cespedes To Miami?

Cespedes: Unnecessary Gamble After Signing Fielder

It looks as though our hopes of signing Yoenis Cespedes are fading fast as he is being wined and dined in Miami this week.

He says, "It would be good (to play here). There are a lot of Cubans and they would support me a lot. Hopefully I can play for the Marlins."

This may be good news for the Tigers as Cespedes had a difficult time in the Dominican Winter League, hitting only .148 with one home run in 35 AB.

With the consistent trio of Young, Jackson, and Boesch in the outfield, and with three more fully capable backups,  Dirks, Kelly, and Raburn, there seems to be enough fire power to hold the space and allow Fielder and Cabrera to do their damage in the middle of the order.

Cespedes would have been a gamble, but a gamble seems unnecessary at this point in the Tiger's clubhouse after signing Prince Fielder to the nine year deal earlier this winter.

The Saga of the Tigers Fifth Starter

JV and Scherzer Stretching the Hammies

However you order it, the Detroit Tigers first four pitchers are all-set. We know it will be a mix of Justin “You Can’t Hit Me” Verlander, Douglas “Mister” Fister, Max “Crazy-Eye” Scherzer, and Rick “Keep My Sinker Down” Porcello…These first four pitchers make a fairly formidable rotation. Their combined statistics from last season (including Fister’s Tigers’ starts only) were: sixty-one wins, twenty-four losses, six-hundred ninety-eight innings pitched, an average ERA of 3.3425, and an average WHIP of 1.13. If you extrapolate that to the upcoming season (plus adjusting Fister’s contribution to a full), there is not a team who would not be happy with that production from the first four pitchers in their rotation.

The true question that needs to be addressed is: what pitcher comes next? Last year the Tigers struggled with this question…a lot! In 2011, until Doug Fister arrived in the D, the back end of the rotation was made up primarily (except for a few spot starters) by Brad “Bad” Penny and Phil “I Am Better From the Pen” Coke. Any way you evaluate their performance; it was below mediocre at best and embarrassing most of the time. Penny had the following season statistical line: 11-11 W-L, 5.30 ERA, 181 IP, 74 SO, and a 1.56 WHIP. Phil Coke displayed these numbers as a starter: 3-9 W-L, 4.47 ERA, 108 IP, 69 SO, and a 1.45 WHIP. The Tigers can do better and they will in 2012. But, who will toe the rubber every fifth day?

The way I see it, here are the options from within Detroit’s current system. Not in any particular order: Jacob Turner RHP, Duane Below LHP, Adam Wilk LHP, Drew Smyly LHP, and Andy Oliver LHP. That is one hard-throwing righty with a lot of southpaws.

Jacob Turner

As pure talent goes, from all the reading and investigating that can be, everyone agrees that Turner will eventually be the best starter from this group…however, in some spot starts last season he did not appear quite ready for the big-time. He made in on MLB’s top 100 prospects list! He will probably make it to Detroit in the 2012 season, but hopefully he will have at least half of the season in Toledo to really prime himself for his rotation spot.

The rest of the southpaws all are intriguing and it would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation. Duane Below could anchor the rotation. The Michigan native had a 9-4 record with a 3.13 ERA and a solid 1.18 WHIP for the Mud Hens last season and did make two starts in Detroit last year going 0-1 giving up 5 ER in 9.2 innings of work while striking out 3. This is a very limited sample size of starts in Motown, but it seems his real value will come as a long-reliever from the pen.

Adam Wilk makes another option. From the reading I have done, he projects with the lowest ceiling of all of these gents, but seems to have honed the most command of his pitches giving him a very nice 1.2 BB per 9 innings pitched while starting in Toledo. He did not fare well in Detroit last year…only 13 IP and a pair of homers was his downfall. I am torn here because I would kind of like to have a 5^th starter who doesn’t put a lot of people on base, who can command pitches and throw strikes, and simply just gives the offense a chance to win the game. He could be this guy…

Drew Smyly

Let’s smile about Drew Smyly. This pitcher was given the title of Detroit Tiger’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2011 and was just named to the same MLB Top 100 Prospect list that Jacob Turner is on. I don’t know about you, but I recognize his name, but can’t recall much else about this man with a pretty cool last name. The reason is because he has not been put on the 40-man roster yet. He was a second round pick in 2010. Apparently, he will throw a fastball, cutter, curve, and change-piece – and according to some scouts all these pitches are rated as MLB average. Between Advanced-A Lakeland and Double-A SeaWolves action last year, Smyly put up these numbers; in 14 Lakeland starts he had a 2.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9 and in 7 Erie starts the numbers were improved with a 1.18 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9. Not to shabby, huh?

Lastly, Andy Oliver, the name is familiar. The problem is this hard-throwing lefty, just has not gotten it done in Detroit over the last two seasons. In fact he seems to not be able to locate his pitches and his numbers don’t lie. In Detroit he has 7.11 ERA over the last two seasons and last years had a walk rate of 7.4 per nine innings. This will not help things. Unfortunately, I think his stock has fallen.

So, that is five options from Detroit. Another way the organization could go is to sign someone with some more experience. Here are the reasonable pitchers who are left as a free agents: Kyle Davies, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Livan Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Ross Ohlendorf, Roy Oswalt (who clearly is not interested in signing with the Tigers), Brad Penny (please no!!), Javier Vazquez (some think he will retire), Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Tim Wakefield. To be honest that list of free agents does not have anyone who stands out greatly and the Tigers did just spend some money! Prediction: the nod will go to Smyly or Turner! They will have growing pains, but once they settle in, they could put together a decent season…it certainly could not be worse than Bad Penny or the Cokester…could it?