Blown Saves in Detroit

How many blown saves will it take for the Tigers to start questioning the role of Jose Valverde as the closer? 

He certainly bought himself some poker chips last year with his perfect effort at the center of the bullpen. He certainly has a knack for getting into trouble and then out of trouble in the game's most intense moments. He certainly is a great entertainer and an upstanding citizen... But... How many blown saves will the Tiger's allow this year before thinking about a transition?

Let's be honest. His fastball is down and his splitter does more rolling than splitting these days. He is 34 years old and his best year is now behind him. His numbers will inevitably get better, but still, look at how bad they have been this year. 

With all of this in mind, we at Detroit Tigers Storyline put the over/under at 7 more blown before September. If he blows 8 or more saves in the remaining 96 games until September begins, it is our estimation that replacing him will become a real part of the conversation. This would mean that in the next 96 games he can only blow 6 of the approximately 30 save opportunities that he will have during that time. He has already blown 2 saves in 7 opportunities this year, and blowing 8 more by September would place him at 10 blown saves in 37 opportunities. These sort of numbers could potentially place the Tigers in jeopardy of losing a playoff spot. Especially if another one of the teams in the Central can come up with 87 or 88 wins. In light of our 2011 campaign and the transitions that we made in the off season, missing the playoffs this year is not acceptable.

In case Valverde stays cold, who might we have to take his spot? Well it looks like Octavio Dotel won't be a good option from last night's performance. Who else is there? Benoit? Possibly. Beyond Benoit? Anyone else in the system? Ryan Perry fell short and is no longer a part of the conversation. Villarreal has been a mess. Albuquerque is MIA. I suppose that this leaves us with the potential of a trade. The season is too early to start predicting which closers will be on the block, but you heard it hear first... For better or worse... A trade for a closer come August just might be in the mix for our 2012 run to the World Series. 

(And if it is, we hope that the Angels continue to struggle as it would be a blast for Fernando Rodney to come back to Detroit!)

Our Geriatric Bullpen

While many are concerned about the front end of the bullpen, which has obvious reasons for such concern, might we argue today that the real concern lies in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. Allow me to explain. 

The concern is not founded upon talent. With Dotel, Benoit, and Valverde all in position to have another great year, the talent is present. The problem lies in a different area... The potential disaster lies within their age. 

Careful of the knees.

Let us not forget that Jose Valverde is 33 and will turn 34 before the beginning of the season.

Juaquin Benoit is 34 and will turn 35 just after the All Star Break. 

Octavio Dotel clocks in at 38 and will turn 39 after the world series that he will hopefully be pitching within. 

This puts our average age of pitching in the final three innings of games this year at 35.6 years of age. 

All this to say, the back end of the Tiger's bullpen is loaded with talent and experience. However, that experience comes with great risk of break down and injury. The injury history of these three pitchers has been consistently positive over the years, but time will tell and time might take its toll on our geriatric stoppers in 2012. Be prepared for late season acquisitions to cover for one or more of these three needing time to recover.