Blown Saves in Detroit

How many blown saves will it take for the Tigers to start questioning the role of Jose Valverde as the closer? 

He certainly bought himself some poker chips last year with his perfect effort at the center of the bullpen. He certainly has a knack for getting into trouble and then out of trouble in the game's most intense moments. He certainly is a great entertainer and an upstanding citizen... But... How many blown saves will the Tiger's allow this year before thinking about a transition?

Let's be honest. His fastball is down and his splitter does more rolling than splitting these days. He is 34 years old and his best year is now behind him. His numbers will inevitably get better, but still, look at how bad they have been this year. 

With all of this in mind, we at Detroit Tigers Storyline put the over/under at 7 more blown before September. If he blows 8 or more saves in the remaining 96 games until September begins, it is our estimation that replacing him will become a real part of the conversation. This would mean that in the next 96 games he can only blow 6 of the approximately 30 save opportunities that he will have during that time. He has already blown 2 saves in 7 opportunities this year, and blowing 8 more by September would place him at 10 blown saves in 37 opportunities. These sort of numbers could potentially place the Tigers in jeopardy of losing a playoff spot. Especially if another one of the teams in the Central can come up with 87 or 88 wins. In light of our 2011 campaign and the transitions that we made in the off season, missing the playoffs this year is not acceptable.

In case Valverde stays cold, who might we have to take his spot? Well it looks like Octavio Dotel won't be a good option from last night's performance. Who else is there? Benoit? Possibly. Beyond Benoit? Anyone else in the system? Ryan Perry fell short and is no longer a part of the conversation. Villarreal has been a mess. Albuquerque is MIA. I suppose that this leaves us with the potential of a trade. The season is too early to start predicting which closers will be on the block, but you heard it hear first... For better or worse... A trade for a closer come August just might be in the mix for our 2012 run to the World Series. 

(And if it is, we hope that the Angels continue to struggle as it would be a blast for Fernando Rodney to come back to Detroit!)