Wednesday, February 29, 2012

AL Central Analysis and Predictions (Part 2)

Chicago White Sox

Why They Will Be Better

1.) Ozzie - While his leadership to the world series in 2005 was outstanding, there has been mucho frustration and little success since. New skipper, Robin Ventura, will be a great addition to the team as he bleeds black and white from his playing days on the south side.
2.) Dunn - .159BA 11HR 42RBI .292OBP literally could not get worse. Even a small improvement, or an injury to Dunn with any number of replacements will be better. Overall, expect a better season now that Dunn knows American League pitching. Predicting .220BA 35HR 90RBI and .320OBP.
3.) Refining Infield - Young talent in the form of Gordon Beckham and Alexi Ramirez have been on the rise the past couple of years. With extensive experience under their belts, they should be ready to lead the next generation of White Sox.

I am getting fat.
Why They Will Be Worse

1.) Ozzie - While the past couple of years have been disappointing, so have been many of the seasons of Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and the like. Ozzie knows how to lead his team to a championship as shown in 2005. He is also a great motivator and leader. While Ventura is an exciting replacement, Ozzie will be missed on the bench and at the helm.
2.) Swiss Cheese Bullpen - There are openings in the bullpen for the White Sox and no one is clear who is going to fill the voids. Matt Thorton of Grand Valley State Univeristy (Go Lakers!) will begin the year as the closer. The problem is that his closing didn't go well last year as he was just 3 for 7 in save opportunities. Other prospects will have to come out of thin air to cover the holes in the cheese of the rest of Chicago's pen. 
3.) Carlos' Vacancy - Carlos Quentin and his 27 HR per year as a White Sox outfielder are gone and the city is hoping that Dayan Viciedo will be able to take his place. Viciendo showed promise in 2010, but took a large step backward in 2011. He has big shoes to fill, and the chances of him filling are slim.




Kansas City Royals

Why they Will Be Better

1.) Core - Mike Moustakas, Johnny Giavotella, and Salvador Perez moved from unknowns with great potential, to known talent with experience under their belt. They will all be even better this year.
2.) Hosmer - This guy is a beast. .293BA 19HR 78RBI .799OPS in his first 523 AB as a major leaguer. We watched him hit an opposite field bomb last year that had people talking of his special talent. If his potential comes together this year, the Royals could gain 5 wins off of his bat.
3.) Pitching - If Paulino and Hochevar give the Royals over 400 innings over the course of the season, which is quite likely, the Royals will improve on their innings pitched by starters, which ranked 24th last year, and give themselves a better shot an winning games late in the season. 

Why They Will Be Worse

Future star.
1.) Echos - Since 2010, we have been reading that this is the year that the Royals young core will finally break through. The question is now becoming... Will the young core ever break through?
2.) Star Power - Every successful team in history has had at least one star player. A player that can draw both a walk in the ninth and fans in the seats. Hosmer is not there... Yet. There is no one else on the roster that can draw.
3.) Little Room - All of the cards need to fall correctly for the Royals to compete this year. There is little room for error and one injury or one underachieving player could deconstruct the whole season.


Cleveland Indians

Why They Will Be Better

1.) Sizemore - Indian's fans have been waiting for years for Grady Sizemore to make a full return as one of the premier center fielders in baseball. While he will never again be a premier center fielder, there are five outfield prospects all on the Indian's 40 man roster born in or after 1986. Michael Brantley got gobs of experience last year with 451AB and Ezequiel Carrera hopes to build on his 10SB last season in 2012.
2.) Santana - Santana's numbers from last year have left him at the top of every fantasy player's draft list. The best part about drafting Santana will be his upside as there is still much room for improvement in his BA, OBP, and OPS.



Why They Will Be Worse

1.) Name Game - Can you name three pitchers on the Cleveland staff? Neither could we. Will off season acquisitions of Kevin Slowey from Minnesota and Derek Lowe from Atlanta pan out? Not likely as both have been on the decline for three years. The one pitcher you may have been able to name is mid season acquisition Ubaldo Jimenez. FYI... He was already having a bad year in Colorado (4.46 ERA) and things got worse in Cleveland (5.10 ERA). Don't expect him to recover 
2.) 1B - Good teams without good first basemen have been few and far between since the 1980's. The Indians do not have a top or even middle tier first basemen. Casey Kotchman and Matt Laporta will duke it out this spring, but neither would compete on most MLB teams.
3.) Fast Start - According to Buster Olney at ESPN, the Indians have the easiest schedule to begin the year. Expect a quick start and a slow decline that will lead to the frustration and eventual demise of this year's squad.

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