Victor Martinez for Playoffs?

Microfracture Surgery

What if Victor has his second surgery in six weeks and he can mount a comeback for the month of October?

The math lines up. Microfracture surgery would allow him back in a matter of a 6 to 12 months according to reports on Greg Oden's recovery on nba.com. If we shoot for the middle of this time, we are looking at recovery by September.

VMart will also be having an ACL surgery in March. People coming back from ACL surgeries have recovered in as low as 4.1 months. http://www.lowerextremityreview.com writes,

"A widely accepted guideline in the orthopedic community is that return to full sports competition should not be permitted until six months after an ACL reconstruction; however, a range between 4.1 to 8.1 months for return to sports has been reported."

Let's safely place Victor in the middle of this range as well, especially considering that he will have the best care that physical therapy can provide and the fact that he is in premier shape as a professional athlete. 

Feeling blue this winter.

If he has surgery in the beginning of March, this could place his full recovery, after six months of rehab at the beginning of September. This is possible.

Now the question becomes the following... Would it be better for the team to place him back in the lineup at this time? Especially considering the time it takes to get back into the rhythm of the highly rhythm oriented game of baseball.

There will be whispers of a return come June and a comeback in 2012 will definitely worth considering. I'm sure that the conversation will be rich as we approach October.

Prince Fielder in Detroit Version 2.0

We bought Prince Fielder today and it is kind of like smoking, or eating too much pizza. In the short term it can feel so right, but in the long run, it can lead to problems. But let's not focus on the problems of the future today. (We'll save that for a future conversation.) Let's, for right now, focus on what this means for the 2012 Detroit Tigers.

Los Buenos

We'll see if he can top his dad's 1990 season.

1.) Boy can hit. In 7 seasons, these have been his numbers.

4120 PA | 230 HR | 656 RBI | 566 BB | .282 BA | .390 OBP | .929 OPS

So not only can he hit. He can hit better than just about any player on the planet, with the exception of one or two. (Like the guy hitting in front of him in the Tiger's lineup.)

2.) He can protect Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. We all know that Victor was incredible in this spot last year. This important spot in the lineup looked all but lost when Victor tore his ACL, yet the promise of protecting Miguel is back in place.

3.) The Tigers will add at least an extra 30 runs scored this year, putting them at an estimated 817 runs total scored in 2012

4.) Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch will see an increase in productivity as the 1 and 2 hitters in the lineup. (Fantasy baseball golden 8th round picks!)

5.) Brandon Inge can find his rightful spot off the hot corner in Detroit. 

6.) We have secured one of the best hitters in the game for the past six years for a total of nine years.

7.) We will win the Central and have a shot at making a run in the world series.

8.) The door is open to trade 3B hot prospect Nick Castellanos for better middle relief pitching.

Keep the glove down.

Los Malos

1.) Miguel at third base. There is already enough written online... Google it or see Cockcroft's article here for details.

2.) We spent 214 million dollars on a man that hasn't won a world series, or a pennant for that matter, can't keep himself in shape, and has shown inconsistencies in his brief time in MLB.

3.) The real problem/gift emerges in 2013 when Victor returns and Miguel has to play at 3B every day. This could get real ugly. Jason Beck put it well.

"Cabrera finished 20th out of 22 qualifying Major League third basemen in 2007 with a .941 fielding percentage; his 2.51 Range Factor ranked 14th. He was 13th out of 20 in fielding percentage in 2006, and 16th in range."

4.) By the way, Prince is also one of the worst fielding 1B in MLB. This makes our infield the slowest and heaviest infield in the history of MLB. Our total weight in the infield (1B, 2B, 3B, SS), depending on who plays second base, could exceed 1,100 pounds!

5.) Don't expect the same production out of Prince playing at Comerica. It is a pitchers park.

6.) The Tigers will give up an extra 20 runs this year, putting them at 731 runs given up. 

Game Fixes

1.) When Porcello or Fister pitch, we play Don Kelley or that guy named Inge at 3B as these pitchers make a living on getting ground ball outs. Place either Miguel or Prince at 1B and allow the other to DH.

2.) Don't be ashamed to give Prince or Miguel a day off and allow them to pinch hit for Inge/Kelley in the mid-late innings.

3.) Force either Miguel or Prince to accept a role as a permanent DH. if Miguel is too ugly at 3B.

4.) Keep Prince away for the Reuben Sandwiches at Zingerman's Deli.

Prince Fielder in Detroit?

The karma feels obvious. His dad not only played for the Tigers, he accelerated in the Old English D, famously hitting 51 HR in 1990. I can only imagine a conversation between the two, in the process of their mending relationship, pointing Prince toward Detroit.

I eat a Reuben per day. 

Prince: Dad, why did you name me Prince?

Cecil: Cause I knew that I would be the King of Detroit as soon as you were born.

Prince: You did? I thought you were up north when I was born?

Cecil still likes to take BP at Comerica.

Cecil: Yes son, the Tigers won the world series in the year you were born, and while I was playing for that one Canadian team, I always wanted to play in Detroit.

Prince: Why would you want to play in Detroit? It is cold, it smells weird and the managers have classically been grumpy old men?

Cecil: One reason son... Zingerman's Delicatessen. It has the best Reuben in the world, and look at you, I know that you love a good Reuben as much as I do.

Prince: How many Reubens could you buy at 20 million a year for 10 years?

Cecil: Probably like a million son. And their mustard is incredible.

Prince: Ah... I see... That makes sense... What is Dave D's number?

Bottom line is that Prince Fielder is fat. Just like his dad was fat. The Ticket, out of Dallas, reported that he is 150 lbs over weight. 10 Years with Prince, eating a Reuben a day, would mean 3650 Reubens and an added 15 lbs a year. In 2022 that would put him at 450 lbs... After a week long fast. Due to his weight, we can not give the Prince a long term contract. He will break down as he ages and he carries that extra weight. As much as we may want him to be, he is not the answer to Victor Martinez. Let's keep looking for something better.

Steps for Today's Bad News of Victor Martinez

Okay friends... The news on Vmart today was bad. Here are the steps for trying to make it better...

1.) Good news... He wasn't going to catch any more. Gerald Laird will take over for Alex Avila once a week this season to give him some rest. (We will pinch hit for him in the 9th every game... Right Jim?) So we need to focus on replacing the numbers of the DH in our order.

2.) These were his numbers last year.

540 AB  |  178 Hits  |  40 Doubles  |  12 HR  |  103 RBI  |  .330 BA  |  .380 OBP

3.) There is one number that stands out here. That is 103 RBI. The rest can almost be accomplished by a simple replacement. For instance, not saying that we should do this, but if we picked up Wilson Betemit once again, the numbers would almost be covered. (These are projected numbers for 540 AB for Wilson Betimit in 2012.)

540 AB  |  160 Hits  |  36 Doubles  |  14 HR  |  80 RBI  |  .290 BA  |  .350 OBP

The hits, doubles, HR, BA and OBP is almost the same and thus a fairly simple replacement. The 103 RBI is not a simple replacement. How do we make up for the 23 RBI that will be lost?

4.) There is probably not an easy answer for replacing those 23 RBI. The free agent market is now slim. Ryan Ludwick... Proly not. Wilson Betimit... He was just an example. Some guy named Magglio... Nope. Who then?

5.) The only answer is Yoennis Cespedes. The problem with this is that he will be expensive and he will want to play in the field. So... This is what we do.

6.) Take the risk and spend the money on Yoennis. We have some money (15 million) and he could be a great investment. (See blogs below.)

7.) Regarding people who will want to play in the field... We rotate Boesch, Yoennis, Young, and Raburn in the field and as DHs.

This is obviously just the beginning to the conversation, but I hope that it sets a foundation for a dialogue that will become increasingly important as we head into spring training. 

The Sabermetrics of 2012 Detroit Tigers

I picked up Moneyball a bit early this year. With the passing of the holidays, I have learned that it is wise for me to at least wait until February to begin putting together a fantasy baseball team, or watching The Natural, or beginning to read a book like Moneyball... But I couldn't resist as I have never read the book and it has been on my nightstand for a couple of months. I have been intrigued by the book, especially the chapter on Bill James and his creation of sabermetrics. Bill James essentially created a whole new way of looking at baseball statistics in the 1970's and he called this method sabermetrics. Here is an example of one of his equations.

James suggests that instead of gauging defense by errors, instead we should gauge defense thought Range Factor (RF), which is, as seen above, putouts plus assists divided by the amount of games played.

Easy enough, I thought to myself as read through the chapter. And then I began imagining putting together an equation for the success of the Detroit Tigers 2012 season, and this is what emerged.

Thus... Last year this number would have been approximately 3.73, assuming the Leyland is burning at least 3 cigarettes per game in the tunnel. 

.317 + 3 + 4.37

______________

(1 + 0 + 102)/50

This number almost got us to the world series.  If this number can raise to over 4.15, I bet our team will be dancing with the trophy in October.

5 Tigers Eligible for Salary Arbitration

In case you were wondering what the Tigers were going to do with their extra 30 million dollars this year, your answer may have been answered... Or at least half answered.

According to James Schmel at Mlive, five Detriot Tigers have now qualified for salary arbitration. This means that they all will receive pay bumps. It is likely that approximately 15 million of that extra 30 million (from Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and BAD Penny) will be spent on the contracts of Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Delmon Young, Don Kelly and Phil Coke.

The good news is that this still leaves us with 15 million for another player or two... Or three. We'll see if Dave D. can get some action on this 15 million for the spring.

"Get....... Sinker...... Down........"

Stuck With Brandon Inge?

Its time to be honest. Brandon Inge is not a good major league baseball player. In fact, one might argue that he has been the worst every day third baseman over the past 10 years. I dare you to find another with worse numbers than these. 

The fact that he has been bad isn’t my concern heading into the 2012 season. Its the fact that he has been getting worse every year for the past 3 years that makes me concerned. How bad could it get it 2012? .172 BA, 3 HR, 43 RBI? My God I want to gag. He might be the only player in Tiger's history to have a negative WAR. (Well... Maybe Gary Pettis too...)

Another moment of honesty that this youtube video articulates quite well.

The people who love Brandon Inge are white, and there are a lot of white people in Michigan. I guarantee that you will not find a black man wearing an Inge jersey at Comerica Park. Just doesn’t happen. White position players in Mo-Town have been sparse, and Inge has been a place for Anglos to place their story within the Tigers story over the past 10 years. This camaraderie has to stop, as we have to get him off the hot corner. But can it happen?

The overarching problem with Inge is on Dumb-browski. He signed him to that ridiculous 2 year deal for 11.5 million. Here is my fear. We are in bed with that contract and won't be able to shake it. It took the extremes of Inge's performance last year to get us to even think about it and he still got 303 Plate Appearances... Most of which were wasted. Unfortunately, this year he will be back on the hot corner. We will have to put up with his strike outs, his whining, and his embarrassing facial hair.  That is until he is so bad that we trade away young talent to replace him, or have a miracle happen in Toledo. Come on Castellanos!

So the worst part of the article is this. We are stuck with him. We are stuck with his lack of production at the plate, his completely mediocre defence, that's right, I said it... And with his lame tattoos. May the white people rejoice. 

 

Happy New Year to the Tiger Faithful

Turning over the calendar always brings a lot of new thoughts, and questions, along with new goals, new resolutions, new hopes.

The questions that come to my mind, for the new year, mostly revolve around the Detroit Tigers.

What will 2012 bring?

Will Verlander continue his dominance?

Will we find the elusive 5^th starter (Can Andy Oliver or Jacob Turner make it happen?)

Can Papa Grande keep it going or will he turn into the next Fernando Rodney?

Can Brennan Bosch recover from his injury?

Will Cabrera win the triple crown?

Is this the year my Tiger, Brandon Inge, puts all the negative comments to rest and has his best hitting year ever?

At what point will my 13 month old son really take notice of the Tigers?

It’s only early January, but turning the calendar makes me think of baseball.

Go Tigers!

Submitted by Chris T.

Three Needs for 2012

2011 was a memorable year for the Tigers. We will look back for a lifetime remembering Justin Verlander's Cy Young and MVP, Miguel Cabrera's batting title, and defeating the Yankees in the ALDS. However, we will also remembering getting trounced by the Rangers, our diminished bullpen, and lack of offensive productivity from our tired line-up in the ALCS. We fell short and need to make changes for 2012. Here are three changes that could make 2012 even more memorable than 2011.

1.) Forget about Joel Zumaya.

89 mph won't cut it for Joel.

We need to begin to look elsewhere for a solid 7th inning man. Joel Zumaya is not this man. He may have been key to our 2006 run to the world series, but that was now 6 seasons ago and he has not been able to contribute in the past 6 years. Whether we sign a LOOGY like a Darren Oliver, or place more emphasis upon Al Alburquerque, we can no longer place any hope in Joel Zumaya as his 126.1 innings over the past 5 years has kept our bullpen from getting a proper flow. 

2.) Forget about Garza and go with Oliver.

Bring on the 89 mph funk.

Matt Garza is all the talk right now. While his 3.31 ERA in 2011 was even better than his 3.91 ERA with Tampa in 2010, let's remember that we have a rotation filled with righties and Jacob Turner well on his way. We don't need another right handed starter. We need a lefty to step in and fill some innings. A solid lefty will give a different look to hitters over the course of a 3 or 4 game series and will finally give an opportunity to Andy Oliver to finally step into the roll that we need him to fill. There may be growing pains, but looking over the next 10 years, we need to give him some experience and now is our opportunity to do this. 

3.) Remember Yoenis Cespedes and trade Delmon Young for Martin Prado. 

Cespedes is a beast. Check out his swing, work ethic and strength in this Youtube that was made about him. His natural skills with his horse-like tenacity could provide stability in left field for us, a place that has been lacking with the likes of Carlos Guillen and Ryan Raburn for years. We have 30 million of Magglio, Carlos and Brad money to spend and this is the place to spend it. We need to outbid the Yankees and lock this guy up for at least the next three years. Prado will fill one of our other weak spots... 2B. He may have plateaued, but his consistency will solidify what Carlos Guillen, Ryan Raburn, Will Nursery Rhymes, and Ramon Santiago could not accomplish last year. What to do with 3B and that one guy that Tiger's fans continue to love? That will require another post.

Lift Off

We may come from different places, have different backgrounds, eat different food, enjoy different movies, value different virtues, and wear different colors, but one thing ties our stories together and that is the Detroit Tigers. This blog will be different than other blogs in that we will value the uncommon perspectives that come from our team of writers. We hope that the unique perspectives will provide fertile ground for understanding the complex layers that go behind why we love our team with the old english “D”. So from remembering stories of old, to the latest analysis on the details of various players, to predictions for the next steps that will make or break our team for the coming years, we hope that our voices can bring all into the wonder that makes our favorite baseball team so special.

If you have any questions or comments about the bog or would like to participate with a post, please email us at transusdetroittigersblog@gmail.com.  

Away we go!