Tigers Baseball is Never Easy

Eleven percent into the 2013 campaign, we at Detroit Tigers Storyline we join the rest of you in feeling torn about how the season has begun. To commemorate this tearing, we have provided three points of panic and three points of promise.

Points of Panic

 

The Bullpen - Duh

The Tigers could just as easily be 12-6 as 9-9 if we only played 5 inning games. The roots of this problem... The starters. They are throwing way too many pitches and have largely been unable to get into the 7th inning which has left copious work for an already underwhelming bullpen. Is there potential? Sure. Has that potential been realized? Not so much. Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke and Bryan Villarreal have a combined ERA of 13.06 and a combined WHIP of 2.59. The season will level these numbers out, but in the mean time, look for a change in the near future. 

The Defense - Don't let the numbers fool you

Mario and Rod had been boasting of the Tigers defense as they led the league in the least amount of errors going into Anaheim. On the surface, this was something to celebrate. With a closer look, the defense is quietly killing us. We need to create a stat the measures the ability for defenders to move. If we did have this stat, we would bet that the Tigers would be at the bottom. Even with our "heaviest infield in the history of baseball" looking a bit more trim this spring, we still can't get to balls. Proof? Porcello's start. We sat in the stands in Anaheim and watched the games and mourned at the Tigers inability to get ground balls and fly balls while the Angels made play after play. Unfortunately for Rick, his ERA has sky rocketed as we are unable to define with statistics the unfortunate case of his infield. (If we were him, we would strongly consider a trade to a team with an infield that can move quicker than our offensive line sized place holders!)

The Lack of Depth - Beyond the first five

One through five we are good. No doubt. Victor will come around, find his pattern, and solidify the best first half of a lineup in all of baseball. Six through nine, on the other hand, leaves room to be desired. Our platoon in left isn't working, our second basemen is 2 for his last 43 and our catcher looks more like an aging uncle than a young all-star. The only bright spot has been Jhonny Peralta, who continues to hover around .300. The others share a combined .225 batting average with a mere 2 home runs and 11 RBI between the four of them. The problem with this is that it just gets worse with Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago who have a dreaded .115 batting average with 0 home runs and 0 RBIs between them in 36 ABs. In short, there is no where to go with our bench. (Did I just hear someone whisper Castellanos?)

Points of Promise

 

Torii Hunter - The best free agent pickup of the off-season

Old man is playing out of his mind. There may have been no better moment in the season than when Torii launched that 480 foot home run in Oakland. With a batting average that continues to hover around .400 and an even more impressive .992 OPS, Hunter has surpassed all expectations. More importantly, Torii provides leadership to a team filled with late adolescents. His wisdom and perspective will be a great asset as his numbers tumble down from their current mountain top.   

 

The Starting Pitching - Filthy numbers

With the exception of throwing too many pitches in early innings and one fluke start by Rick Porcello, the Tigers starters have been amongst the elite in all of baseball. Their combined 2.35 ERA (not including Porcello) has surpassed all expectations, as has their combined 8-3 record (again, not including Porcello.) The question moving forward will be whether Porcello keeps his 5th spot or gives it up to Drew Smyly, who has been equally as efficient. With this exception of an early season slip, he has still performed as well as the rest of the Tigers starters. (1.80 ERA with a record of 1-0.) We'll see where Jim and Jeff land on the decision, but it may be nice to add a lefty to the rotation. 

 

The First Five - None better in baseball

Where to start? They are nasty. Nasty good. A combined .308 BA with 9 HR and a stunning 59 RBI in 18 games. Once Victor gets moving the core will get even better and will lead us into another post-season adventure. Nuff said.

A Recipe for the Gaping Hole of 2013

After a 2012 campaign that finished with a deep run into October and a steady nucleus of players back for 2013, it is a joy to write an article on the one and only hole of 2013. Our closer. 

It was hard to watch Jose Valverde fall as quickly as he did in October, but anyone who watched him pitch throughout the whole of 2012 could see that his magic was gone. He could no longer locate his splitter and his fastball struggled to top 93 mpg with minimal movement. 

With Hanrahan going to the Red Sox, the options for going outside of our system are slim. Soriano is still available. His numbers looked outstanding last year while filling in for that other closer in pin stripes. I forget his name. I think he may have slipped during BP and hurt his knee early in 2012.

Here's the problem with Soriano, he is 33 and looking for a multi-year deal as a closer. (Valverde is 34.) Sure, Dennis Eckersly closed games deep into his thirties, but an aging closer, looking for tens of millions of dollars is probably not the place for Dombroski to be spending money. (Let's also remember the shabby history of Dominican born players and their "real" age as opposed to how old they "say" they are. He could be 37 for all we know.) 

This leaves the Tigers with two other options. Trade or promote from within. 

We certainly have some bait for a trade. Take Rick Porcello for instance. He is a young righty with a nasty sinker and a host of experience well beyond his age. (Remember that he was doused with beer after his first MLB win that wasn't legal for him to drink!) With our slow infield and the number of ground balls that he generates, Porcello would have more success in another uniform. What might a Porcello and Garcia deal look like? Or how about a Porcello and Castellanos deal? Would we want to give up all that potential for a year of two of solid closing? We would argue... no.  Not right away, at least.

Here's why. 

When Valverde was perfect in 2011, his WAR was 2.0. Last year, in a less than perfect performance, his WAR was 0.5. Here's the thing... The role of the closer is overrated during the course of the regular season. Pair this with the reality that the AL Central is so bad and we have the perfect recipe for how things should transpire for this glaring hole for 2013. 

The Tigers will win the Central in 2012 with or without a solidified closer. Valverde blew five saves last year and tried to blow numerous more. We can get away with numerous blown saves again this coming year and still win in the regular season. But... we cannot afford this luxery in the post-season. 

Thus, the Tigers should see who emerges during the regular season as the closer. Maybe Dotel? Maybe Coke? Maybe Benoit? Maybe Rondon? Maybe even a closer by committee route? All of these options will be fine to get us through July.

Once the trade deadline approaches, we can then trade for a new arm to carry us into October. This is the moment that a Porcello/Garcia deal could be perfect for someone like Chris Perez from the Indians or Tom Wilhelmsen from the Mariners. If one of these guys, or another like them, gets hot on a team that will be looking to rebuild in 2014, the Tigers could be in the perfect position to secure their role of closer for another deep post-season run in 2013.

Tigers Move Down in Power Rankings

They had a swagger coming into Friday, didn't they? Well that swagger has been laid to rest as the Tigers go to Seattle on Tuesday after losing three out of four to the defending ALCS winners from Texas. With the poor performance, the Tigers have moved down to number 2 in ESPN's power rankings.

Overall, this weekend proves that there is still work to do. For any of us that were ready to deem the Tigers the world series champions, may this series from this weekend cause us to pause and take note.

Rick Porcello, who we thought would be a mainstay in the starting rotation this year, is now a bad start or two away from losing that title due to his embarrassing, batting practice-like performance on Saturday, giving up 8 runs in an inning's work.

Our offense goes as Austin Jackson goes. He had been red hot going into the weekend, but came back down to reality. On Thursday he was on base 0 times and we scored three runs. On Saturday he was on base 1 time in the first game and 1 time in the second game. The Tigers scored a total of 7 runs.  On Sunday he was on base 1 time and we scored 2 runs. He had a total of 1 run scored and his batting average is down to .274. More importantly his OBP is down to .366. Let's see if he can keep his levels in this space. Lower would be bad. Higher would be a gift.

On the flip side... This could be the best thing that could have happened to us. A gentle reminder that there is still work to do to get to the top. The Rangers are now officially the best team in the American League and the Tigers will once again need to go the extra mile to regain that position. Maybe losing three out of four will be the fuel to get them there.

5 Tigers Eligible for Salary Arbitration

In case you were wondering what the Tigers were going to do with their extra 30 million dollars this year, your answer may have been answered... Or at least half answered.

According to James Schmel at Mlive, five Detriot Tigers have now qualified for salary arbitration. This means that they all will receive pay bumps. It is likely that approximately 15 million of that extra 30 million (from Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and BAD Penny) will be spent on the contracts of Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Delmon Young, Don Kelly and Phil Coke.

The good news is that this still leaves us with 15 million for another player or two... Or three. We'll see if Dave D. can get some action on this 15 million for the spring.

"Get....... Sinker...... Down........"