A Recipe for the Gaping Hole of 2013

After a 2012 campaign that finished with a deep run into October and a steady nucleus of players back for 2013, it is a joy to write an article on the one and only hole of 2013. Our closer. 

It was hard to watch Jose Valverde fall as quickly as he did in October, but anyone who watched him pitch throughout the whole of 2012 could see that his magic was gone. He could no longer locate his splitter and his fastball struggled to top 93 mpg with minimal movement. 

With Hanrahan going to the Red Sox, the options for going outside of our system are slim. Soriano is still available. His numbers looked outstanding last year while filling in for that other closer in pin stripes. I forget his name. I think he may have slipped during BP and hurt his knee early in 2012.

Here's the problem with Soriano, he is 33 and looking for a multi-year deal as a closer. (Valverde is 34.) Sure, Dennis Eckersly closed games deep into his thirties, but an aging closer, looking for tens of millions of dollars is probably not the place for Dombroski to be spending money. (Let's also remember the shabby history of Dominican born players and their "real" age as opposed to how old they "say" they are. He could be 37 for all we know.) 

This leaves the Tigers with two other options. Trade or promote from within. 

We certainly have some bait for a trade. Take Rick Porcello for instance. He is a young righty with a nasty sinker and a host of experience well beyond his age. (Remember that he was doused with beer after his first MLB win that wasn't legal for him to drink!) With our slow infield and the number of ground balls that he generates, Porcello would have more success in another uniform. What might a Porcello and Garcia deal look like? Or how about a Porcello and Castellanos deal? Would we want to give up all that potential for a year of two of solid closing? We would argue... no.  Not right away, at least.

Here's why. 

When Valverde was perfect in 2011, his WAR was 2.0. Last year, in a less than perfect performance, his WAR was 0.5. Here's the thing... The role of the closer is overrated during the course of the regular season. Pair this with the reality that the AL Central is so bad and we have the perfect recipe for how things should transpire for this glaring hole for 2013. 

The Tigers will win the Central in 2012 with or without a solidified closer. Valverde blew five saves last year and tried to blow numerous more. We can get away with numerous blown saves again this coming year and still win in the regular season. But... we cannot afford this luxery in the post-season. 

Thus, the Tigers should see who emerges during the regular season as the closer. Maybe Dotel? Maybe Coke? Maybe Benoit? Maybe Rondon? Maybe even a closer by committee route? All of these options will be fine to get us through July.

Once the trade deadline approaches, we can then trade for a new arm to carry us into October. This is the moment that a Porcello/Garcia deal could be perfect for someone like Chris Perez from the Indians or Tom Wilhelmsen from the Mariners. If one of these guys, or another like them, gets hot on a team that will be looking to rebuild in 2014, the Tigers could be in the perfect position to secure their role of closer for another deep post-season run in 2013.