Just 78% Done... Where Do We Stand?

The Tiger's Sunday victory marked the 127th game completed for the Tigers this season. The simple math shows that this marks just over 75% of the season completed (78% to be exact). On the flip side, this means there is almost 25% of the season left (as mentioned in our post this past weekend). All the Detroit faithful are wanting the Tigers to make the playoffs...just like our 2011 team did. We have heard a lot of talk about the Tigers being better last year...a more complete team...stronger work-ethic....and more leadership. Is that true? Is this team, the 2012 Tigers, worse than last year's ALCS contending Tigers? Let's look at the splits.

After 127 games played - 

RECORD

2011: 69-58

2012: 69-58

Exactly the same thus far...looks like September will be telling. The 2011 team went 20-6 in the month of September. The 2012 team will probably need to play this strong down the stretch as well.

BATTING

2011:

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2012:

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It is interesting how similar the production has been by these two squads. The 2012 team has scored 2 more runs on about 20 less AB. This year and last year saw 126 HR through 127 games. The team BA was microscopically higher in 2011, but the OBP and SLG are higher this season - they should be with the addition of Mr. Fielder. What we found striking was the number of runners left on base through 127 games...919 in 2011 and 892 in 2012. The way this season has felt it seems like it would be opposite. The 2012 team is statistically better through 78% of the season. 

PITCHING

2011: 

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2012:

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The 2012 staff has allowed almost 30 fewer ER accounting for an ERA of 3.90 versus 4.18 for 2011. This year's team has struck out the entire world it seems like - between Scherzer and JV. 1,049 SO versus 860 (2012 vs. 2011).  This year's team has induced 8 more GIDP - hopefully Rick Porcello continues to improve at this. 

SUMMARY

This year's and last year's team are very similar in almost every respect. It appears that the reason for the agonizing chase of 1st place in the AL Central is simply that the White Sox are just continuing to win. It has been said here before, that we do not think the Sox can tear through September like they have been. If the Tiger's have a September like last year they should be fine. It will come down to the head-to-head games between the two teams...hopefully, this AL Central power struggle will propel the 2nd place team into one of the two AL Wild Card slots!

GO TIGS!

Will the Tigers Make the Playoffs?

All year we have been encouraging people not to worry, as the season is one that is long. The thought is the same for today. Here are a couple of items to remember as we come down the stretch. 

1.) The regular season lasts into October this year. In fact, the Tigers have a final three game series in Kansas City that will be fully played in October. With this in mind, there are still 36 games left in this season. That is still almost a quarter of the season. 22.22%.

2.) The scoreboard watching has certainly picked up. Every night we find ourselves checking to see if the White Sox won. Their season continues to come together with unexpected rigor. Bottom line... They keep winning, but we don't think that their pace will continue. All of their pieces have fallen into place this year and this will not sustain through the final quarter of the season. 

3.) As stated in an earlier post, with the parallel schedules that the White Sox and Tigers have, whether or not the Tigers make the playoffs will depend on those seven games. If either team wins 5 of 7, then that team will win the Central. The other team will have to scramble to get one of those wildcard bids.

Watching Baseball with the Blind

I was given a gift on Wednesday. I went to a baseball game with a blind friend named Charles. I will never watch a game the same way again.

For the first time, I prioritized the sound of baseball while taking in the game with Charles. Many often say that baseball is better on the radio than on the television. I caught a glimpse of why this is true on Wednesday.

My friend couldn't see the game, yet was enthralled by the experience at Chavez Ravine, even without sight.

The last time that he went to a game was in 1993, and he could see at that time. He went blind in 1997. This time, he could only hear, and he heard a lot.

He talked about hearing all of the noises of the game that went beyond the crack of the bat. He heard the people. He heard the conversations that were happening around him. We were reminded that baseball, while mostly quiet, was a talking persons game.

He would hear the prompts for the crowd to get clapping at the same time during important moments of the game. He would join in the percussion. Off a beat. While blindness has made his hearing better, it was clear that it did not help his rhythm.

He also heard all of the noise pollution. He heard the mess of songs that played as each hitter stepped to the plate. The soundbites were a bit much, he told me. He also heard the advertisements that rang between each inning on the big screen. The latest movie, the next product to purchase, etc... He was bothered by this recent development at Dodger's Stadium, and rightly so. "It didn't used to be this way." He said. I lamented.

He also heard the communal yell of the crowd. While not knowing what was exactly going on, he joined in the screams. The energy of the people around him compelled him to join. It was incredible to watch. He never actually asked what happened, but someone always told him and this gets to the best part.

The most meaningful observation of him experiencing the game came from the people that surrounded him in seats 11 and 13. No matter where they were in other conversations, they would always lean over to describe the fortune or the folly of the players.

"Ground ball, second base, out at first. Two outs, man on third." One would say.

I got to yell at him in the first inning. "Home run, Matt Kemp, left center!" The crowd was going crazy as I stretched the limits of my vocal cords into his right ear. Charles winced a bit and then smiled as he clapped his hands for the 400 foot blast from the Dodger all-star. He closed his eye lids, hiding the bright blue irises that jumped around in his eye ducts like an over caffeinated hand.

I asked him as we drove home why he closed his eyes during the game. He told me that he could still see the game clearly when his eyes were closed. He reminded me that he dreamed at night in perfect 20/20 vision, and that closing his eyes at the game prompted that sort of vision. "Closing my eyes allowed me to envision what that Matt Kemp home run actually looked like." He told me as he smiled again.

It seems that watching the game is still important. Even to Charles. 

Down the Stretch They Come: This is Going to be Close

The bottom line for the Tigers over the past two months (Since June 1) is that they have been playing exceptionally better at home than on the road. Not unusual in baseball.

On the Road

14-14

At Home

20-9

With this in mind, we have good news for you as we forecast into the final two months of the season.

The Tigers have 29 remaining home games and 25 remaining away games.

At this pace, the Tigers should win another 33 games, finishing the season with 91 wins. We forecasted 86 wins to be enough to win the AL Central. So this should be enough... Right?

The problem of it all is that the White Sox basically have the same ratio of home vs. away games as the Tigers. 29 and 26. Pair this with the reality that the White Sox continue to play out of their minds, the race could be close. Very close. (If there was a comeback team of the year, it would have to go to the White Sox.)

To add to the equality of both team's schedules, they will both be playing an equal buffet of bottom dwellers in the AL Central heading into October.

The Tigers play the Royals and the Indians 25 times, while the White Sox play them 24 times.

With all of these factors in mind, our estimation is that the AL Central will come down to the 7 times that the White Sox and Tigers play each other in August and September. The team that wins that 7 game series will most likely be playing in October, while the other will be watching from home.