Why WAR Shouldn't be Used in MVP Decisions

ESPN is bubbling with people pitching Mike Trout for the MVP over Miguel Cabrera because of his WAR. This is not an effecitve case for gauging MVP candidates for two reasons.

1.) There is no clearly established formula for WAR. Sites that provide the statistic, such as Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference, all calculate it differently; however, all of these sites calculate the value of WAR using these principles, and each site publicly acknowledges their methods for calculating their individual WAR values.

For instance, Baseball Prospectus has Mike Trout at 8.1 and Miguel Cabrera at 5.8. Fangraphs has Mike Trout at a 9.4 and Miguel Cabrera at 6.8. ESPN was quoting some extreme number with Trout at 10.3 and Cabrera at 6.3. 

2.)  The player that would replace the other is also completely subjective. We cannot know how a replacement player would do, or even who that player would be. Imagine the WAR of the various Angel center-fielders last year. Would the stat have picked up Mike Trout's unique talents? No. The stat is helpful for engaging conversations, but not for choosing MVP's. 

Let the standardized, time tested statistics tell the story, and let's not confuse people with subjective pontification.

AL MVP...is there a question???

As the season is winding down...15 more days of baseball games....the discussion for MVP of each league is getting heavy. 

We appreciate Mike Trout...what a GREAT young player!

No doubt Josh Hamilton is a great ballplayer!

However, is there any case that can be made against Miguel Cabrera getting AL MVP???! 

STATS (through September 18th's game):

TROUT - AVG .327 / HR 27 / RBI 77 / OPS .954

HAMILTON - AVG .287 / HR 42 / RBI 123 / OPS .947

MIGGY - AVG .333 (1st in AL) / HR 40 (2nd in AL) / RBI 129 (1st in AL) / OPS 1.008 (1st in AL)

These are not just AL MVP numbers - these are seriously contending Triple Crown numbers...not even joking...he is for real, contending for AL Triple Crown and we are having discussion about who is the AL MVP...come on now!!

Go Tigs and Go Miggy

P.S. - Tigers will still be playing in October. 

Why Detroit Still May Play in October

Curt Schilling and the people from Baseball Tonight say that the White Sox have the AL Central locked up.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8393611

We at Detroit Tigers Storyline disagree.

If the Tigers had won last night's game, we would say that the AL Central is wrapped up as a comparison of schedules has a serious advantage going to Detroit.

Since the Tigers are now down three, with fifteen to play, they have their work cut out for them, but a comeback is extremely possible.

Here are three reasons why.

1.) The Tigers have nine remaining home games. The White Sox have six. 

2.) The Tigers only play one more team with a record of over .500 for four games. The White Sox play two teams with a record of over .500 for seven games. 

3.) On the current pitching rotation, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have a total of seven starts left between the two of them. Scherzer has four and Verlander has three. If Verlander goes on short rest for one of the starts, then the two of them will be pitching in eight of the fifteen games remaining. If Verlander does not go on short rest, he will pitch the playoff game against the White Sox or Game 1 of the ALDS.

If the White Sox go 8-7 over the next fifteen, then the Tigers will have to go 11-4. This is a stretch, but with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer getting half, or more than half of the starting, we wouldn't yet count out the boys from Detroit.

Detroit's Schedule Significantly Easier Heading Down the Stretch

We always admire Jim Leyland in his ability to lineup our pitching rotation to our advantage. For instance, he recently tweaked our staff schedule in order that Verlander might pitch twice against the White Sox down the stretch. In the midst of his recent struggle, this was especially important as Verlander has been dominate against the White Sox of late. (11-1 in his last 13 starts.)

This is why last night's postponement is an advantage for the White Sox. Not only will the Tigers have to swing through Chicago for an inconvenient one day road trip after time in Cleveland, but they will not have to face Verlander in what is the most important game left on the schedule for both teams.

The upside? The Tigers schedule is easier than that of the White Sox after the game next Monday. The Tigers will have nine games at home and only six on the road, with only three against a team over .500. (The sliding Oakland A's.) The White Sox on the other hand, have 6 games at home and 9 on the road, playing 7 of the fifteen games against team over .500. (Including the surging Angels and playoff hungry Rays.)

All in all it was a successful road trip to Chicago and all things look to be in place for another playoff run in 2012.