The Saga of the Tigers Fifth Starter

JV and Scherzer Stretching the Hammies

However you order it, the Detroit Tigers first four pitchers are all-set. We know it will be a mix of Justin “You Can’t Hit Me” Verlander, Douglas “Mister” Fister, Max “Crazy-Eye” Scherzer, and Rick “Keep My Sinker Down” Porcello…These first four pitchers make a fairly formidable rotation. Their combined statistics from last season (including Fister’s Tigers’ starts only) were: sixty-one wins, twenty-four losses, six-hundred ninety-eight innings pitched, an average ERA of 3.3425, and an average WHIP of 1.13. If you extrapolate that to the upcoming season (plus adjusting Fister’s contribution to a full), there is not a team who would not be happy with that production from the first four pitchers in their rotation.

The true question that needs to be addressed is: what pitcher comes next? Last year the Tigers struggled with this question…a lot! In 2011, until Doug Fister arrived in the D, the back end of the rotation was made up primarily (except for a few spot starters) by Brad “Bad” Penny and Phil “I Am Better From the Pen” Coke. Any way you evaluate their performance; it was below mediocre at best and embarrassing most of the time. Penny had the following season statistical line: 11-11 W-L, 5.30 ERA, 181 IP, 74 SO, and a 1.56 WHIP. Phil Coke displayed these numbers as a starter: 3-9 W-L, 4.47 ERA, 108 IP, 69 SO, and a 1.45 WHIP. The Tigers can do better and they will in 2012. But, who will toe the rubber every fifth day?

The way I see it, here are the options from within Detroit’s current system. Not in any particular order: Jacob Turner RHP, Duane Below LHP, Adam Wilk LHP, Drew Smyly LHP, and Andy Oliver LHP. That is one hard-throwing righty with a lot of southpaws.

Jacob Turner

As pure talent goes, from all the reading and investigating that can be, everyone agrees that Turner will eventually be the best starter from this group…however, in some spot starts last season he did not appear quite ready for the big-time. He made in on MLB’s top 100 prospects list! He will probably make it to Detroit in the 2012 season, but hopefully he will have at least half of the season in Toledo to really prime himself for his rotation spot.

The rest of the southpaws all are intriguing and it would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation. Duane Below could anchor the rotation. The Michigan native had a 9-4 record with a 3.13 ERA and a solid 1.18 WHIP for the Mud Hens last season and did make two starts in Detroit last year going 0-1 giving up 5 ER in 9.2 innings of work while striking out 3. This is a very limited sample size of starts in Motown, but it seems his real value will come as a long-reliever from the pen.

Adam Wilk makes another option. From the reading I have done, he projects with the lowest ceiling of all of these gents, but seems to have honed the most command of his pitches giving him a very nice 1.2 BB per 9 innings pitched while starting in Toledo. He did not fare well in Detroit last year…only 13 IP and a pair of homers was his downfall. I am torn here because I would kind of like to have a 5^th starter who doesn’t put a lot of people on base, who can command pitches and throw strikes, and simply just gives the offense a chance to win the game. He could be this guy…

Drew Smyly

Let’s smile about Drew Smyly. This pitcher was given the title of Detroit Tiger’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2011 and was just named to the same MLB Top 100 Prospect list that Jacob Turner is on. I don’t know about you, but I recognize his name, but can’t recall much else about this man with a pretty cool last name. The reason is because he has not been put on the 40-man roster yet. He was a second round pick in 2010. Apparently, he will throw a fastball, cutter, curve, and change-piece – and according to some scouts all these pitches are rated as MLB average. Between Advanced-A Lakeland and Double-A SeaWolves action last year, Smyly put up these numbers; in 14 Lakeland starts he had a 2.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9 and in 7 Erie starts the numbers were improved with a 1.18 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9. Not to shabby, huh?

Lastly, Andy Oliver, the name is familiar. The problem is this hard-throwing lefty, just has not gotten it done in Detroit over the last two seasons. In fact he seems to not be able to locate his pitches and his numbers don’t lie. In Detroit he has 7.11 ERA over the last two seasons and last years had a walk rate of 7.4 per nine innings. This will not help things. Unfortunately, I think his stock has fallen.

So, that is five options from Detroit. Another way the organization could go is to sign someone with some more experience. Here are the reasonable pitchers who are left as a free agents: Kyle Davies, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Livan Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Ross Ohlendorf, Roy Oswalt (who clearly is not interested in signing with the Tigers), Brad Penny (please no!!), Javier Vazquez (some think he will retire), Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Tim Wakefield. To be honest that list of free agents does not have anyone who stands out greatly and the Tigers did just spend some money! Prediction: the nod will go to Smyly or Turner! They will have growing pains, but once they settle in, they could put together a decent season…it certainly could not be worse than Bad Penny or the Cokester…could it?