Jose Valverde is Back

With great drama, on the night of April 24, 2013, a familiar ritual was performed in Comerica Park. Jose Valverde, AKA the fat potato, spit his water, did his dance and ran onto the mound in the ninth inning to save a baseball game for the Detroit Tigers. Some fans cheered, some fans booed, and Twitter went crazy. He accomplished a 1-2-3 inning with his half dyed beard, and left all in Detroit to wonder if he will be the answer to their bull pen woes (see previous post). This post will examine three reasons why he is the answer, and three reasons what he is not the answer that Detroit need to make a run at the world series in 2013.

Why he is the answer.

1.) The Tigers are in desperation mode. Not because of their record or how they are playing, but because the literally don't have someone to close. Papa Grande has been there and done that.

2.) He threw 95 mph last night. (Its not the 98, as reported, but 95 could get it done.)

3.) He brings a great presence with him. Who cares if he takes 3 minutes between pitches! The drama is ripe for watching. 

Why he is not the answer.

1.) He is 35 years old. 35 year old pitchers don't get better unless they are Bartolo Colon with a syrynge in his leg.

2.) It doesn't look like he can throw his splitter. All of his pitches last night were fastballs.

3.) It doesn't matter if he is throwing 95. Ninety five, without 85 is useless.

Tigers Baseball is Never Easy

Eleven percent into the 2013 campaign, we at Detroit Tigers Storyline we join the rest of you in feeling torn about how the season has begun. To commemorate this tearing, we have provided three points of panic and three points of promise.

Points of Panic

 

The Bullpen - Duh

The Tigers could just as easily be 12-6 as 9-9 if we only played 5 inning games. The roots of this problem... The starters. They are throwing way too many pitches and have largely been unable to get into the 7th inning which has left copious work for an already underwhelming bullpen. Is there potential? Sure. Has that potential been realized? Not so much. Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke and Bryan Villarreal have a combined ERA of 13.06 and a combined WHIP of 2.59. The season will level these numbers out, but in the mean time, look for a change in the near future. 

The Defense - Don't let the numbers fool you

Mario and Rod had been boasting of the Tigers defense as they led the league in the least amount of errors going into Anaheim. On the surface, this was something to celebrate. With a closer look, the defense is quietly killing us. We need to create a stat the measures the ability for defenders to move. If we did have this stat, we would bet that the Tigers would be at the bottom. Even with our "heaviest infield in the history of baseball" looking a bit more trim this spring, we still can't get to balls. Proof? Porcello's start. We sat in the stands in Anaheim and watched the games and mourned at the Tigers inability to get ground balls and fly balls while the Angels made play after play. Unfortunately for Rick, his ERA has sky rocketed as we are unable to define with statistics the unfortunate case of his infield. (If we were him, we would strongly consider a trade to a team with an infield that can move quicker than our offensive line sized place holders!)

The Lack of Depth - Beyond the first five

One through five we are good. No doubt. Victor will come around, find his pattern, and solidify the best first half of a lineup in all of baseball. Six through nine, on the other hand, leaves room to be desired. Our platoon in left isn't working, our second basemen is 2 for his last 43 and our catcher looks more like an aging uncle than a young all-star. The only bright spot has been Jhonny Peralta, who continues to hover around .300. The others share a combined .225 batting average with a mere 2 home runs and 11 RBI between the four of them. The problem with this is that it just gets worse with Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago who have a dreaded .115 batting average with 0 home runs and 0 RBIs between them in 36 ABs. In short, there is no where to go with our bench. (Did I just hear someone whisper Castellanos?)

Points of Promise

 

Torii Hunter - The best free agent pickup of the off-season

Old man is playing out of his mind. There may have been no better moment in the season than when Torii launched that 480 foot home run in Oakland. With a batting average that continues to hover around .400 and an even more impressive .992 OPS, Hunter has surpassed all expectations. More importantly, Torii provides leadership to a team filled with late adolescents. His wisdom and perspective will be a great asset as his numbers tumble down from their current mountain top.   

 

The Starting Pitching - Filthy numbers

With the exception of throwing too many pitches in early innings and one fluke start by Rick Porcello, the Tigers starters have been amongst the elite in all of baseball. Their combined 2.35 ERA (not including Porcello) has surpassed all expectations, as has their combined 8-3 record (again, not including Porcello.) The question moving forward will be whether Porcello keeps his 5th spot or gives it up to Drew Smyly, who has been equally as efficient. With this exception of an early season slip, he has still performed as well as the rest of the Tigers starters. (1.80 ERA with a record of 1-0.) We'll see where Jim and Jeff land on the decision, but it may be nice to add a lefty to the rotation. 

 

The First Five - None better in baseball

Where to start? They are nasty. Nasty good. A combined .308 BA with 9 HR and a stunning 59 RBI in 18 games. Once Victor gets moving the core will get even better and will lead us into another post-season adventure. Nuff said.

Left Field in Detroit This Summer

While there is a gaping hole in the role of closer for 2013 in Detroit (see previous post), there is a less gaping hole in left field. Its "gapiness" is still present, however, though less than that of the role of pitcher, due to the potential that waits for its everyday opportunity.

The cast of potential consists of four players.

Andy Dirks, Avisail Garcia, Brennen Boesch, and Jeff Kobernus.

Here are the reasons that they will and will not be the Detroit's everyday left fielder.

Andy Dirks

Why He's the Man

This is his time. He hit .322 last year with an .857 OPS in 314 ABs. He spent time on the DL last year, minimizing his impact, but returned to continue on his solid pace. He is the logical choice and Jim Leyland has said that it is his spot to lose.

Why He's not the Man

He's got the lowest up-side of all four options. He is small, a mediocre defender and will never be an all-star. The other three have a much higher upside that Dirks.

Avisail Garcia

Why He's the Man

Avisail was given a gift last September. He was called up to play at Comerica and did not disappoint. In 47 Abs he hit .319. He is also hits from the right side, unlike Dirks and Boesch. He will almost certainly get some starts against left-handed pitching.

Why He's not the Man

Sure he hit .319 as he had 15 hits in his 47 ABs... However, all 15 of his hits were singles. No doubles, no triples, and no home runs. If Avisail is going to live up to his potential, he will need to learn to hit with more power.

 

Brennen Boesch

Why He's the Man

Brennan Boesch has the most experience out of the crew. He has shown he can hit with "country-strong" power while maintaining an acceptable batting average.

 

Why He's not the Man

He had his chance last year. He wont the spot in right field and turned out to the be the biggest disappointment of 2012 for the Tigers. His batting average in 2012 was .240, which wouldn't be so bad if it weren't for his OPS that fell from .799 in 2011 to .659 in 2012. He is still young, at 28 years old, but will have to have a solid spring to make the team.

Jeff Kobernus

Why He's the Man

He is young and he is fast. Over the past four years in the minors he has stacked up 120 SBs in under 1200 ABs. His batting average has been climbing to over .280, but will have to work on plate discipline as his OBP was only .320.

 

Why He's not the Man

He is a long shot. He is the new guy in town who has never played above AA ball.

A Recipe for the Gaping Hole of 2013

After a 2012 campaign that finished with a deep run into October and a steady nucleus of players back for 2013, it is a joy to write an article on the one and only hole of 2013. Our closer. 

It was hard to watch Jose Valverde fall as quickly as he did in October, but anyone who watched him pitch throughout the whole of 2012 could see that his magic was gone. He could no longer locate his splitter and his fastball struggled to top 93 mpg with minimal movement. 

With Hanrahan going to the Red Sox, the options for going outside of our system are slim. Soriano is still available. His numbers looked outstanding last year while filling in for that other closer in pin stripes. I forget his name. I think he may have slipped during BP and hurt his knee early in 2012.

Here's the problem with Soriano, he is 33 and looking for a multi-year deal as a closer. (Valverde is 34.) Sure, Dennis Eckersly closed games deep into his thirties, but an aging closer, looking for tens of millions of dollars is probably not the place for Dombroski to be spending money. (Let's also remember the shabby history of Dominican born players and their "real" age as opposed to how old they "say" they are. He could be 37 for all we know.) 

This leaves the Tigers with two other options. Trade or promote from within. 

We certainly have some bait for a trade. Take Rick Porcello for instance. He is a young righty with a nasty sinker and a host of experience well beyond his age. (Remember that he was doused with beer after his first MLB win that wasn't legal for him to drink!) With our slow infield and the number of ground balls that he generates, Porcello would have more success in another uniform. What might a Porcello and Garcia deal look like? Or how about a Porcello and Castellanos deal? Would we want to give up all that potential for a year of two of solid closing? We would argue... no.  Not right away, at least.

Here's why. 

When Valverde was perfect in 2011, his WAR was 2.0. Last year, in a less than perfect performance, his WAR was 0.5. Here's the thing... The role of the closer is overrated during the course of the regular season. Pair this with the reality that the AL Central is so bad and we have the perfect recipe for how things should transpire for this glaring hole for 2013. 

The Tigers will win the Central in 2012 with or without a solidified closer. Valverde blew five saves last year and tried to blow numerous more. We can get away with numerous blown saves again this coming year and still win in the regular season. But... we cannot afford this luxery in the post-season. 

Thus, the Tigers should see who emerges during the regular season as the closer. Maybe Dotel? Maybe Coke? Maybe Benoit? Maybe Rondon? Maybe even a closer by committee route? All of these options will be fine to get us through July.

Once the trade deadline approaches, we can then trade for a new arm to carry us into October. This is the moment that a Porcello/Garcia deal could be perfect for someone like Chris Perez from the Indians or Tom Wilhelmsen from the Mariners. If one of these guys, or another like them, gets hot on a team that will be looking to rebuild in 2014, the Tigers could be in the perfect position to secure their role of closer for another deep post-season run in 2013.

Positioning for 2013

The Tigers have had an eventful beginning to their winter. Dave Dombroski continues to press to win Mike Illich a world series before he passes. The money seems to be endless and the desire present, but is continued spending on free agents the way to win one for the pizza making gipper? 

Torii Hunter

He received a two year, twenty six million dollar deal from the Tigers. He batted .313 with an .817 OPS for the Angels last season, contributing 16 homers and 92 RBI. He was particularly effective in the No. 2 spot, batting .343 with an .854 OPS in 381 plate appearances, where he will likely hit for Detroit. It isn't his numbers that the Tigers viewed when signing him to this, potentially his last, professional baseball contract. It is his leadership. The Tigers were missing this key piece on their roster last year. With Martinez down, there was no fitting veteran on the roster to hold a steady posture of leadership to take the team to the highest level. Hunter, along with Martinez will provide this in 2013. 

Anibal Sanchez

Sanchez reminds us of the depth of Illich's pockets. After the Fielder signing, many mourned at the "money suck" of the deal. Would we be able to sign and re-sign players with all that we had committed to Fielder??? The Sanchez deals tells us... yes. Five years and eighty million dollars later, the Tigers have locked up this righty who is 48-51 with a 3.75 career ERA. The numbers are fine, but were strengthened with Sanchez's post-season ERA last year at 1.77 ERA. The concerning note on Sanchez is his injury history. In 2003 Sánchez suffered an elbow injury that required surgery to move his elbow ligament. The whole season was lost. In 2007 he had a tear in his labrum that required surgery and missing several starts. At 28 years old he has the experience of one much older. This is good news. The bad news is the reality that his career will probably be cut short due to his health history. Hopefully his ending doesn't come before 2017.

Acquiring Hunter and Sanchez lifts our roster on paper. No doubt about this. Will they be able to bring cohesiveness to the clubhouse... This is the question. For a game so focused on the one on one match-up between the pitcher and the hitter, baseball is ultimately a game of bonding. Just ask the last three world series winners. Twice the SF Giants and once the St. Louis Cardinals. All three teams looked worse on paper than the losers of the series. Winning is ultimately about good pitching and timely hitting. To execute these two essentials, it seems that the bond and cohesiveness of the team pulls the eventual winner to the champagne, not the names on the roster with multiple zeros behind their contracts.

Detroit Tigers Post-Season Recap

After a month of recovering from the sting of our final four games of the season, it feels good to leave the fetal position and to be writing again. The recovery has included many a thought about the Detroit Tigers 2012 run to the world series. It really was a joy, the whole way through.

While we were generous to let the A's back into the ALDS, this picture summed up how the majority of Tiger fans felt as we headed into game 5.

Beating the Yankees in the playoffs for the third time in seven years was also a joy. This year was extra special as we not only swept the overpaid, entitled, cry-baby-filled pin stripers, but arguably made a final blow to the deconstruction of their lame attempt at building another empire. The only problem was, of course, that we were left with 7 days off due to the blue pill popping, injury filled performance of America's most over-priced team.

The World Series was tough to watch. No getting around it. Its parallel to 2006 made it even harder. In 2006 the theme was "Tigers in 3", and this year was not all that different, except for the fact that we knew not to say "Tigers in 3".

After lots of analysis and reading boat loads of articles about the fall of Detroit in the World Series, we at Detroit Tigers Storyline feel as if baseball still comes down to two simple realities.

Good pitching.
Timely hitting.

Detroit had good pitching all throughout the post-seasons, including the world series, giving up a grand total of 16 runs in 4 games, including 8 in the first game. The pitching was not the problem. It was the hitting.

Timely hitting is about getting hits with runners on base. Doubles, when there is a man on first, singles when there is a man on second, beating out an infield hit with a runner on third, and so on. The easiest way to gauge timely hitting is through observing batting averages with runners in scoring position. (RISP) Here are the numbers from the four game set at the end of October.

GAME 1

Giants RISP: 4-6 (B Posey 1-1, H Pence 0-1, M Scutaro 2-2, B Zito 1-1, B Belt 0-1)
Tigers RISP: 1-5 (P Fielder 0-1, O Infante 0-1, M Cabrera 1-1, D Young 0-1, J Peralta 0-1)

GAME 2

Giants RISP: 1-5 (M Bumgarner 0-1, G Blanco 1-1, B Crawford 0-1, R Theriot 0-1, B Belt 0-1)
Tigers RISP: 0-2 (A Garcia 0-1, J Peralta 0-1)

GAME 3

Giants RISP: 2-7 (A Pagan 0-2, B Posey 0-1, H Pence 0-1, H Sanchez 0-1, G Blanco 1-1, B Crawford 1-1)
Tigers RISP: 0-4 (P Fielder 0-1, M Cabrera 0-1, Q Berry 0-2)

GAME 4

Giants RISP: 2-9 (A Pagan 0-2, B Posey 0-1, M Scutaro 1-1, G Blanco 0-1, B Crawford 0-1, R Theriot 0-1, B Belt 1-1, P Sandoval 0-1)
Tigers RISP: 1-1 (M Cabrera 1-1)

There are two outstanding problems with what happened to the Detroit Tigers ability to score runs.

Firstly, their average with RISP was poor compared to the Giants.  The Giants hit a giant-like .333 with RISP while the Tigers hit a meager .154. This is problematic, especially when we consider the few opportunities that were actually created to score runs. This leads us into our second observation.

Secondly, and just as importantly, the Tigers showed an astounding inability to even get to second and third base throughout the series. The Giants had at-bats with RISP 27 times during the series. The Tigers only had at-bats with RISP 12 times. A lower average with RISP would be more acceptable if we advanced many runners into that position. Unfortunately, we combined a lack of production to second and third base with a low batting average. The results were inevitable.

The cause? They were numerous, but it seems that the most problematic cause was the break between the ALCS and the WS. According to mlb.com when only one team has swept in the LCS, they have won the world series five times in twelve attempts. 

Baseball is a game of pattern and rhythm and this was broken in our work of destroying the Yankees. Practice is just not the same, and the Tigers were bit by this reality in 2006 and 2012. Hopefully 2013 will include an arduous 7 game win over the Angels and a 2013 World Series Championship!

It's been refreshing to hear the media slowing down on their manic reactions to Mike Trout. Tim Kirkjian of ESPN, however is still unsure over who will win. Buster Olney, also of ESPN, argues for Trout. Let's take a close look.

We have noticed that analysis on this topic typically only compares 4 or 5 stats at a time, with Cabrera or Trout winning approximately half of the statistical items.  This post will look at a more exhaustive list of stats between the two to give a fair comparison.

Miguel Cabrera

Mike Trout

The score finished at 15 for Cabrera and 7 for Trout. We understand that there is more to baseball than these stats, but let's be honest, Joe Mauer in 2009, Alex Rodriguez in 2007, 2005 and 2003, and Jason Giambi in 2000 were voted in for anything other than these statistical categories.

Mike Trout may win an MVP in the future, but this year belong to Cabrera. Let's be honest, it is awkward for baseball that the conversation has even gone this far.

Why WAR Shouldn't be Used in MVP Decisions

ESPN is bubbling with people pitching Mike Trout for the MVP over Miguel Cabrera because of his WAR. This is not an effecitve case for gauging MVP candidates for two reasons.

1.) There is no clearly established formula for WAR. Sites that provide the statistic, such as Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference, all calculate it differently; however, all of these sites calculate the value of WAR using these principles, and each site publicly acknowledges their methods for calculating their individual WAR values.

For instance, Baseball Prospectus has Mike Trout at 8.1 and Miguel Cabrera at 5.8. Fangraphs has Mike Trout at a 9.4 and Miguel Cabrera at 6.8. ESPN was quoting some extreme number with Trout at 10.3 and Cabrera at 6.3. 

2.)  The player that would replace the other is also completely subjective. We cannot know how a replacement player would do, or even who that player would be. Imagine the WAR of the various Angel center-fielders last year. Would the stat have picked up Mike Trout's unique talents? No. The stat is helpful for engaging conversations, but not for choosing MVP's. 

Let the standardized, time tested statistics tell the story, and let's not confuse people with subjective pontification.

AL MVP...is there a question???

As the season is winding down...15 more days of baseball games....the discussion for MVP of each league is getting heavy. 

We appreciate Mike Trout...what a GREAT young player!

No doubt Josh Hamilton is a great ballplayer!

However, is there any case that can be made against Miguel Cabrera getting AL MVP???! 

STATS (through September 18th's game):

TROUT - AVG .327 / HR 27 / RBI 77 / OPS .954

HAMILTON - AVG .287 / HR 42 / RBI 123 / OPS .947

MIGGY - AVG .333 (1st in AL) / HR 40 (2nd in AL) / RBI 129 (1st in AL) / OPS 1.008 (1st in AL)

These are not just AL MVP numbers - these are seriously contending Triple Crown numbers...not even joking...he is for real, contending for AL Triple Crown and we are having discussion about who is the AL MVP...come on now!!

Go Tigs and Go Miggy

P.S. - Tigers will still be playing in October. 

Why Detroit Still May Play in October

Curt Schilling and the people from Baseball Tonight say that the White Sox have the AL Central locked up.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8393611

We at Detroit Tigers Storyline disagree.

If the Tigers had won last night's game, we would say that the AL Central is wrapped up as a comparison of schedules has a serious advantage going to Detroit.

Since the Tigers are now down three, with fifteen to play, they have their work cut out for them, but a comeback is extremely possible.

Here are three reasons why.

1.) The Tigers have nine remaining home games. The White Sox have six. 

2.) The Tigers only play one more team with a record of over .500 for four games. The White Sox play two teams with a record of over .500 for seven games. 

3.) On the current pitching rotation, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have a total of seven starts left between the two of them. Scherzer has four and Verlander has three. If Verlander goes on short rest for one of the starts, then the two of them will be pitching in eight of the fifteen games remaining. If Verlander does not go on short rest, he will pitch the playoff game against the White Sox or Game 1 of the ALDS.

If the White Sox go 8-7 over the next fifteen, then the Tigers will have to go 11-4. This is a stretch, but with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer getting half, or more than half of the starting, we wouldn't yet count out the boys from Detroit.